diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-child-benefit-registered-claims.fixed.md b/changelog.d/uk-child-benefit-registered-claims.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..28693792e --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-child-benefit-registered-claims.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Preserve registered Child Benefit claims for opt-out-aware UK models and restrict opt-out draws to families whose charge meets the installed payment-suppression threshold, recording any pool shortfall. Keep the original draws and payment flags for older engines, and record the export contract and evaluated threshold in stage receipts. diff --git a/docs/uk-child-benefit-claim-contract.md b/docs/uk-child-benefit-claim-contract.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..c01356005 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/uk-child-benefit-claim-contract.md @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +# Child Benefit claims and payment opt-outs + +The `child_benefit_take_up` stage draws registered claims and payment opt-outs +separately. Registered claimants include families that opt out of payment. +`would_claim_child_benefit` must retain that registration for the model to +restore payment when a reform removes or sufficiently reduces the High Income +Child Benefit Charge. See [policyengine-uk#2140](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/2140) +and [policyengine-uk#2065](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/2065). + +The stage supports two installed-engine contracts: + +| Installed model | `would_claim_child_benefit` export | Receipt encoding | +| --- | --- | --- | +| Exposes `gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share` | Registered claims, including payment opt-outs | `registered_claims` | +| Does not expose that parameter | Claims excluding payment opt-outs, preserving the older model's payment behavior | `legacy_payment` | + +The capability and actual `opt_out_charge_share` value are read from the installed +model's parameter tree alongside the charge thresholds at the build year's +January 1. The stage receipt's `claim_export` records the selected encoding, +capability and engine parameter source, including its package version; +`opt_outs.opt_out_charge_share` records the evaluated share, or `null` for legacy +models. A present but nonnumeric or nonfinite share is rejected. +This avoids guessing the version number of the release containing #2140 and +keeps the currently locked older engine compatible. Both ordinary spine builds +and graph replay reconstruct the same stage transform and read that boundary. + +For opt-out-aware models, the draw selects only claiming nonreporters whose +charge fraction is positive and at least the installed share. With the default +share of one, only fully charged families can opt out. If that pool cannot carry +HMRC's target, `pool_shortfall_families` and `pool_exhausted` record the shortfall; +the stage does not fill it with families the model would pay. A lower share can +admit taper families; share zero still excludes incomes at or below the charge +start, and a share above one leaves the pool empty. Fully charged candidates +retain priority. Equal or reversed taper endpoints remain unsupported by the +build boundary (`0 < start < end`); the stage does not infer a cliff rule. + +Older models retain the original draw: fully charged families first, then taper +families for any remainder. Neither contract opts out reporters or nonclaimants, +and units without eligible children keep their early claim draw. Identity-keyed +random draws and claim-rate solving remain unchanged. + +The stage's `claims`, `opt_outs` and `in_payment` statistics describe the draws +against HMRC targets. `in_payment` counts claims excluding drawn opt-outs, whose +selection now matches the installed baseline payment-suppression rule. It does +not rerun the model to measure cash payments. Synthetic exported-dataset tests +check paid-family and paid-child counts and payment amounts against the model; +they do not establish the population fit after this changed draw. + +Use a model containing #2140 and regenerate the Child Benefit stage to produce +the registered-claim contract. Updating model code alone does not migrate old +Microcosm exports: their false claim flag may mean an opted-out registered +family. A migration must establish producer provenance and registration first. +Never infer claims by OR-ing the flags in the UK model: EnhancedFRS draws +opt-outs independently, so false/true can instead mean a genuine nonclaimant. +EnhancedFRS remains compatible with the UK model's independent claim gate. + +Code CI uses synthetic frames; it does not rebuild or certify population data. +Existing releases retain their original recorded model/data contract until a +separately authorized rebuild and publication. + +Rollout belongs with the engine-upgrade work in [Microcosm #1095](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1095): + +- Upgrade the model and rebuild the Child Benefit stage and exported data. +- Inspect the explicit opt-out pool shortfall at the build's weights. +- Compare before/after model-paid families, children and payment amounts. +- Measure the actual `obr.child_benefit` fit before approving calibration or release. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index 7a10f5817..715aafdb0 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -468,7 +468,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -491,7 +491,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -514,7 +514,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -536,7 +536,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -565,7 +565,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -585,7 +585,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -606,7 +606,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "067ba21c12aeb4e95e6a8a16141dbaa075e8787ed875a005f549cab6e91a6b56", @@ -719,7 +719,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -760,7 +760,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9468 Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24 household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2023 mean kWh, the FY2024-25 Ofgem cap levels, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS), the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24" @@ -786,7 +786,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -810,7 +810,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and ONS UK House Price Index December 2025 regional average prices.", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -837,7 +837,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -870,7 +870,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -892,7 +892,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -914,7 +914,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -949,7 +949,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a89e2dad9d75768af47a394cab197e3115f18fe3a82efda12d8f22321359438e", + "source_manifest_sha256": "c2e14142c3875d31646674bf62fd2c5bb17bd47fc98ea6a1952fed224704f7a7", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 2bdccd85e..4de216276 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -4732,8 +4732,8 @@ "taper" ], "weight_mapping": "household_to_benunit", - "rule": "published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families with the highest adjusted net income at or above the full-charge income, then, for any remainder, among those inside the taper", - "payment_rule": "would_claim_child_benefit = claims and not opted out on families with an eligible child; a benefit unit without one keeps its early draw" + "rule": "published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families, fully charged first then inside the taper; opt-out-aware models restrict both pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share, recording any pool shortfall; legacy models retain the unfiltered pools", + "payment_rule": "would_claim_child_benefit = claims on families with an eligible child when the model exposes gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share; otherwise claims and not opted out for legacy models; a benefit unit without an eligible child keeps its early draw" } ], "outputs": [], @@ -4741,7 +4741,7 @@ "would_claim_child_benefit", "child_benefit_opts_out" ], - "notes": "Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit's income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person's eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person's adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC's published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage's household weights. The published share of registered families that opted out of payment (August 2025) of the claiming families then opts out, drawn among claiming families that do not report receipt and whose highest adjusted net income is at or above the income at which the High Income Child Benefit Charge takes the whole benefit, then inside the taper for any remainder. The engine pays on would_claim_child_benefit alone, so the stage stores claims-and-not-opted-out there and the opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out; a benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out." + "notes": "Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit's income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person's eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person's adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC's published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage's household weights. The published opted-out share of registered families (August 2025) is drawn among claiming non-reporters, fully charged first. Opt-out-aware models restrict both the full-charge and taper pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share. With the default share of one, only fully charged families can opt out; an insufficient pool is recorded as a shortfall instead of selecting paid taper families. Legacy models retain the original full-charge pool and taper fallback. Models exposing gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share (policyengine-uk#2140) receive registered claims, including opted-out families, in would_claim_child_benefit and the separate opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out. Older models receive the legacy claims-and-not-opted-out payment flag because they ignore the opt-out input. Stage evidence records the selected encoding, evaluated opt-out charge share and engine parameter source. The in-payment audit counts claims-and-not-opted-out in the draw, with new candidates aligned to baseline payment suppression; it is not a fresh model run or population calibration evidence. A benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out." }, { "stage": "uc_deduction_attributes", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index abc098bf4..3fdf79e6a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -3827,13 +3827,13 @@ stages: - fully_charged - taper weight_mapping: household_to_benunit - rule: published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families with the highest adjusted net income at or above the full-charge income, then, for any remainder, among those inside the taper - payment_rule: would_claim_child_benefit = claims and not opted out on families with an eligible child; a benefit unit without one keeps its early draw + rule: published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families, fully charged first then inside the taper; opt-out-aware models restrict both pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share, recording any pool shortfall; legacy models retain the unfiltered pools + payment_rule: would_claim_child_benefit = claims on families with an eligible child when the model exposes gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share; otherwise claims and not opted out for legacy models; a benefit unit without an eligible child keeps its early draw outputs: [] rewrites: - would_claim_child_benefit - child_benefit_opts_out - notes: 'Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit''s income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person''s eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person''s adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC''s published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage''s household weights. The published share of registered families that opted out of payment (August 2025) of the claiming families then opts out, drawn among claiming families that do not report receipt and whose highest adjusted net income is at or above the income at which the High Income Child Benefit Charge takes the whole benefit, then inside the taper for any remainder. The engine pays on would_claim_child_benefit alone, so the stage stores claims-and-not-opted-out there and the opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out; a benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out.' + notes: 'Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit''s income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person''s eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person''s adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC''s published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage''s household weights. The published opted-out share of registered families (August 2025) is drawn among claiming non-reporters, fully charged first. Opt-out-aware models restrict both the full-charge and taper pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share. With the default share of one, only fully charged families can opt out; an insufficient pool is recorded as a shortfall instead of selecting paid taper families. Legacy models retain the original full-charge pool and taper fallback. Models exposing gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share (policyengine-uk#2140) receive registered claims, including opted-out families, in would_claim_child_benefit and the separate opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out. Older models receive the legacy claims-and-not-opted-out payment flag because they ignore the opt-out input. Stage evidence records the selected encoding, evaluated opt-out charge share and engine parameter source. The in-payment audit counts claims-and-not-opted-out in the draw, with new candidates aligned to baseline payment suppression; it is not a fresh model run or population calibration evidence. A benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out.' - stage: uc_deduction_attributes survey: DWP Universal Credit deductions statistics, March 2025 to February 2026 source: Department for Work and Pensions supplementary Tables 2, 5 and 6, sha-pinned by Chronicle package dwp-uc-deductions-march-2025-february-2026. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/child_benefit_take_up.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/child_benefit_take_up.py index 1531cb6f9..cd0d9fd9a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/child_benefit_take_up.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/child_benefit_take_up.py @@ -3,9 +3,8 @@ ``frs_take_up`` draws ``would_claim_child_benefit`` early, at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the FRS reporters added on top, and ``child_benefit_opts_out`` at a flat rate over every benefit unit whatever its -income; the engine pays on the first and never reads the second. This stage -redraws both once the SPI income chain has set the incomes the charge is -assessed on, against HMRC's Child Benefit statistics. +income. This stage redraws both once the SPI income chain has set the incomes +the charge is assessed on, against HMRC's Child Benefit statistics. Claims. One temporary engine materialization gives each person's eligibility (a child, or a qualifying young person). HMRC publishes the share of eligible @@ -29,22 +28,31 @@ Opt-outs. HMRC publishes the families registered and, of them, the families that opted out of payment because of the High Income Child Benefit Charge. That share of the claiming families opts out, drawn among claiming families -that do not report receipt and whose highest adjusted net income is at or -above the income at which the charge takes the whole benefit; where that pool -is lighter than the target the rest is drawn from the families inside the -taper. A family in the taper still gains from the payment, so the fully -charged families come first. - -The engine pays on ``would_claim_child_benefit`` alone, so the stage stores -``claims and not opted out`` there and the opt-out in -``child_benefit_opts_out``. A benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its +that do not report receipt. For opt-out-aware models, candidates must have a +positive charge fraction at least as large as the installed +``opt_out_charge_share``. The default share of one restricts the draw to fully +charged families; a smaller eligible pool leaves an explicit shortfall. Older +models retain their fully charged pool followed by a taper fallback. Within +either contract, fully charged candidates come first. + +Models exposing ``gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share`` (UK #2140) +read claims and opt-outs separately, so ``would_claim_child_benefit`` includes +registered opted-out families. Older models ignore the opt-out input and need +the legacy ``claims and not opted out`` payment flag. The installed parameter +tree selects the encoding and the receipt records it; no dataset-name or +vintage heuristic is used. A benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out. + +The in-payment audit counts ``claims and not opted out``. New-contract opt-out +candidates match the installed baseline payment-suppression rule; the receipt +is still a draw audit, not a fresh model run or evidence of population fit. """ from __future__ import annotations from collections.abc import Mapping from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from numbers import Real from pathlib import Path import numpy as np @@ -100,13 +108,16 @@ ) CHILD_BENEFIT_OPT_OUT_RULE = ( "published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming " - "families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families with the highest " - "adjusted net income at or above the full-charge income, then, for any " - "remainder, among those inside the taper" + "families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families, fully charged first " + "then inside the taper; opt-out-aware models restrict both pools to a " + "positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share, " + "recording any pool shortfall; legacy models retain the unfiltered pools" ) CHILD_BENEFIT_PAYMENT_RULE = ( - "would_claim_child_benefit = claims and not opted out on families with an " - "eligible child; a benefit unit without one keeps its early draw" + "would_claim_child_benefit = claims on families with an eligible child " + "when the model exposes gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share; " + "otherwise claims and not opted out for legacy models; a benefit unit " + "without an eligible child keeps its early draw" ) @@ -153,12 +164,25 @@ class UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds: phase_out_start: float phase_out_end: float source: str = "caller" + supports_opt_out: bool = False + opt_out_charge_share: float | None = None def __post_init__(self) -> None: if not 0.0 < self.phase_out_start < self.phase_out_end: raise ValueError( "Child Benefit charge thresholds must satisfy 0 < start < end." ) + if self.supports_opt_out: + share = self.opt_out_charge_share + if ( + isinstance(share, bool) + or not isinstance(share, Real) + or not np.isfinite(share) + ): + raise ValueError( + "Child Benefit opt_out_charge_share must be a finite numeric " + "value when the model supports opt-outs." + ) def load_child_benefit_statistics() -> UKChildBenefitStatistics: @@ -235,7 +259,7 @@ def one(measure: str, period: str, **dimensions: object) -> float: def uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds( build_period: int | str, ) -> UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds: - """Read the charge's taper from the engine at ``{year}-01-01``.""" + """Read the taper and payment-suppression share from the installed model.""" try: import policyengine_uk @@ -252,9 +276,15 @@ def uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds( ) instant = f"{int(build_period)}-01-01" charge = parameters.gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC + child_benefit = parameters.gov.hmrc.child_benefit + supports_opt_out = "opt_out_charge_share" in child_benefit.children return UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds( phase_out_start=float(charge.phase_out_start(instant)), phase_out_end=float(charge.phase_out_end(instant)), + supports_opt_out=supports_opt_out, + opt_out_charge_share=( + child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share(instant) if supports_opt_out else None + ), source=( f"policyengine-uk {metadata.version('policyengine-uk')} " f"{CHILD_BENEFIT_CHARGE_PARAMETERS} at {instant}" @@ -267,6 +297,7 @@ class UKChildBenefitTakeUpResult: """Output frame and executed-effect receipt for the Child Benefit redraw.""" frame: Frame + claim_export: Mapping[str, object] claims: Mapping[str, object] opt_outs: Mapping[str, object] in_payment: Mapping[str, object] @@ -281,6 +312,7 @@ def evidence(self) -> dict[str, object]: "claim_rule": CHILD_BENEFIT_CLAIM_RULE, "opt_out_rule": CHILD_BENEFIT_OPT_OUT_RULE, "payment_rule": CHILD_BENEFIT_PAYMENT_RULE, + "claim_export": dict(self.claim_export), "claims": dict(self.claims), "opt_outs": dict(self.opt_outs), "in_payment": dict(self.in_payment), @@ -439,7 +471,8 @@ def redraw_child_benefit_take_up( previous_opt_out = ( benunit[CHILD_BENEFIT_OPT_OUT_OUTPUT].fillna(False).to_numpy(bool) ) - would_claim = np.where(family, paid, previous_claim) + exported_claims = claims if thresholds.supports_opt_out else paid + would_claim = np.where(family, exported_claims, previous_claim) benunit[CHILD_BENEFIT_CLAIM_OUTPUT] = would_claim benunit[CHILD_BENEFIT_OPT_OUT_OUTPUT] = opt_out result = uk_national_frame( @@ -458,10 +491,18 @@ def redraw_child_benefit_take_up( outside = reporter & ~family return UKChildBenefitTakeUpResult( frame=result, + claim_export={ + "encoding": ( + "registered_claims" if thresholds.supports_opt_out else "legacy_payment" + ), + "supports_opt_out": thresholds.supports_opt_out, + "engine_parameters_source": thresholds.source, + }, claims=claim_receipt, opt_outs=opt_out_receipt, in_payment={ "weights": "household weights at the stage, before calibration", + "basis": "claims and not opted out in the draw; not a model cash rerun", "families": paid_families, "children": paid_children, "published_families": statistics.families_in_payment, @@ -633,7 +674,7 @@ def assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( statistics: UKChildBenefitStatistics, thresholds: UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds, ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, dict[str, object]]: - """Opt out the published share of claiming families, fully charged first.""" + """Draw opt-outs from unpaid candidates, retaining the legacy taper fallback.""" claims = np.asarray(claims, dtype=bool) reporter = np.asarray(reporter, dtype=bool) @@ -642,6 +683,21 @@ def assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( weights = np.asarray(weights, dtype=np.float64) draws = np.asarray(draws, dtype=np.float64) candidates = claims & ~reporter + if thresholds.supports_opt_out: + # The supported build boundary has positive taper width. Match the + # installed model's payment-suppression predicate, including share=0: + # a family at the charge start must still receive payment. + charge_fraction = np.clip( + np.maximum(highest_income - thresholds.phase_out_start, 0.0) + / (thresholds.phase_out_end - thresholds.phase_out_start), + 0.0, + 1.0, + ) + candidates &= ( + (children > 0) + & (charge_fraction > 0) + & (charge_fraction >= thresholds.opt_out_charge_share) + ) pools = ( ( "fully_charged", @@ -699,6 +755,11 @@ def assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( "charge_income": CHILD_BENEFIT_CHARGE_INCOME_VARIABLE, "phase_out_start": thresholds.phase_out_start, "phase_out_end": thresholds.phase_out_end, + "opt_out_charge_share": ( + float(thresholds.opt_out_charge_share) + if thresholds.supports_opt_out + else None + ), "thresholds_source": thresholds.source, "reporters_above_charge_start": float( weights[ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..b14d0456f --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py @@ -0,0 +1,205 @@ +"""Round-trip the registered-claim export through the installed UK model.""" + +from dataclasses import replace +from types import SimpleNamespace + +import numpy as np +import pytest +from policyengine_uk import Simulation +from policyengine_uk.data.dataset_schema import UKMultiYearDataset, UKSingleYearDataset +from policyengine_uk.utils.scenario import Scenario + +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.child_benefit_take_up import ( + redraw_child_benefit_take_up, + uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds, +) +from test_support.microcosm_build.uk_child_benefit_take_up import ( + _frame, + _statistics, + _StubEngine, + _taper_frame, +) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("supports_opt_out", [False, True]) +def test_installed_parameter_boundary_selects_export_capability( + monkeypatch, + supports_opt_out: bool, +) -> None: + import policyengine_core.parameters + + parameters = _parameter_tree(supports_opt_out, 0.5) + monkeypatch.setattr( + policyengine_core.parameters, "ParameterNode", lambda **kwargs: parameters + ) + thresholds = uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds(2026) + assert thresholds.supports_opt_out is supports_opt_out + assert thresholds.opt_out_charge_share == (0.5 if supports_opt_out else None) + assert "policyengine-uk " in thresholds.source + + +def _abolish_child_benefit_charge(simulation): + simulation.tax_benefit_system.neutralize_variable("CB_HITC") + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "reform", + [ + Scenario(simulation_modifier=_abolish_child_benefit_charge), + Scenario.from_reform( + { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end": { + "2026": float("inf") + } + } + ), + ], +) +def test_registered_claim_export_round_trips_baseline_and_charge_relief(reform): + thresholds = uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds(2026) + # The reporter and fully charged two-child family claim; the family + # whose eldest child is age zero does not claim. All opt-outs come from + # the fully charged family. This isolates the export/payment contract. + statistics = replace( + _statistics({0: 0.0, 1: 1.0, 2: 1.0}), families_opted_out=500.0 + ) + result = redraw_child_benefit_take_up( + _frame(), engine=_StubEngine(), statistics=statistics, thresholds=thresholds + ) + benunit = result.frame.table("benunit") + assert benunit["would_claim_child_benefit"].tolist() == [ + True, + thresholds.supports_opt_out, + False, + True, + ] + assert benunit["child_benefit_opts_out"].tolist() == [False, True, False, False] + dataset = UKSingleYearDataset( + person=result.frame.table("person").rename( + columns={"stub_income": "adjusted_net_income"} + ), + benunit=benunit, + household=result.frame.table("household"), + fiscal_year=2026, + ) + simulation = Simulation( + dataset=UKMultiYearDataset(datasets=[dataset]), scenario=reform + ) + baseline = np.asarray(simulation.baseline.calculate("child_benefit", 2026)) + payment = np.asarray(simulation.calculate("child_benefit", 2026)) + entitlement = np.asarray(simulation.calculate("child_benefit_entitlement", 2026)) + assert baseline[0] == pytest.approx(entitlement[0]) + assert baseline[1:].tolist() == [0, 0, 0] + assert payment[0] == pytest.approx(entitlement[0]) + assert payment[1] == pytest.approx( + entitlement[1] if thresholds.supports_opt_out else 0 + ) + assert payment[2:].tolist() == [0, 0] + assert np.asarray(simulation.calculate("CB_HITC", 2026)).sum() == 0 + assert result.evidence()["claim_export"]["encoding"] == ( + "registered_claims" if thresholds.supports_opt_out else "legacy_payment" + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("share", [1.0, 0.5, 0.0, 1.1]) +def test_taper_and_full_charge_draws_agree_with_baseline_model_payments(share): + thresholds = uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds(2026) + if thresholds.supports_opt_out: + thresholds = replace(thresholds, opt_out_charge_share=share) + frame = _taper_frame() + result = redraw_child_benefit_take_up( + frame, + engine=_StubEngine(), + statistics=replace( + _statistics({0: 1.0, 1: 1.0, 2: 1.0, 3: 0.0}), + families_opted_out=900.0, + ), + thresholds=thresholds, + ) + # Weight 10 reporter; weight 2 full-charge family with two children; + # weight 20 half-charge family; childless reporter; genuine nonclaimant. + full_opt_out = not thresholds.supports_opt_out or share <= 1 + taper_opt_out = not thresholds.supports_opt_out or share <= 0.5 + paid = np.asarray([True, not full_opt_out, not taper_opt_out, False, False]) + benunit = result.frame.table("benunit") + assert benunit["child_benefit_opts_out"].tolist() == [ + False, + full_opt_out, + taper_opt_out, + False, + False, + ] + assert benunit["would_claim_child_benefit"].tolist() == [ + True, + thresholds.supports_opt_out or not full_opt_out, + thresholds.supports_opt_out or not taper_opt_out, + True, + False, + ] + dataset = UKSingleYearDataset( + person=result.frame.table("person").rename( + columns={"stub_income": "adjusted_net_income"} + ), + benunit=benunit, + household=result.frame.table("household"), + fiscal_year=2026, + ) + scenario = Scenario( + parameter_changes={ + "gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share": {"2026": share} + } + if thresholds.supports_opt_out + else {} + ) + simulation = Simulation( + dataset=UKMultiYearDataset(datasets=[dataset]), scenario=scenario + ) + payment = np.asarray(simulation.calculate("child_benefit", 2026)) + entitlement = np.asarray(simulation.calculate("child_benefit_entitlement", 2026)) + weights = frame.weights_for("household").values + children = np.asarray([1, 2, 1, 0, 1]) + assert payment.tolist() == pytest.approx((entitlement * paid).tolist()) + assert result.in_payment["families"] == float(weights[payment > 0].sum()) + assert result.in_payment["children"] == float( + (weights * children)[payment > 0].sum() + ) + assert float(weights @ payment) == pytest.approx( + float(weights @ (entitlement * paid)) + ) + assert result.opt_outs["pool_shortfall_families"] == pytest.approx( + 28.8 - 2 * full_opt_out - 20 * taper_opt_out + ) + + +def _parameter_tree(supports_opt_out, share): + children = ( + {"opt_out_charge_share": lambda instant: share} if supports_opt_out else {} + ) + return SimpleNamespace( + gov=SimpleNamespace( + hmrc=SimpleNamespace( + child_benefit=SimpleNamespace(children=children, **children), + income_tax=SimpleNamespace( + charges=SimpleNamespace( + CB_HITC=SimpleNamespace( + phase_out_start=lambda instant: 60_000.0, + phase_out_end=lambda instant: 80_000.0, + ) + ) + ), + ) + ) + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("share", [None, float("nan"), float("inf"), "1", True]) +def test_present_invalid_share_is_not_treated_as_legacy_capability(monkeypatch, share): + import policyengine_core.parameters + + monkeypatch.setattr( + policyengine_core.parameters, + "ParameterNode", + lambda **kwargs: _parameter_tree(True, share), + ) + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="opt_out_charge_share.*finite numeric"): + uk_child_benefit_charge_thresholds(2026) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py index d5da1cc4e..603153ebc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_child_benefit_take_up.py @@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import json from dataclasses import replace import numpy as np @@ -27,26 +28,18 @@ ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_take_up import UK_TAKE_UP_SIGNAL_OUTPUTS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_fact_vendoring import load_vendor_selections -from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import uk_national_frame -from microcosm.frame import WeightKind +from test_support.microcosm_build.uk_child_benefit_take_up import ( + _frame, + _statistics, + _StubEngine, +) +from test_support.paths import paths_for THRESHOLDS = UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds( phase_out_start=60_000.0, phase_out_end=80_000.0 ) -def _statistics(rates: dict[int, float] | None = None) -> UKChildBenefitStatistics: - return UKChildBenefitStatistics( - claim_rates=rates or {0: 0.7, 1: 0.8, 2: 0.9}, - all_ages_claim_rate=0.8, - families_registered=1_000.0, - families_in_payment=900.0, - families_opted_out=100.0, - children_in_payment=1_500.0, - children_opted_out=150.0, - ) - - def _families(count: int = 30_000, *, reporter_share: float = 0.3, seed: int = 5): """Families of one or two children aged 0 to 2, one row per child.""" @@ -214,54 +207,6 @@ def test_statistics_and_thresholds_refuse_unusable_values() -> None: UKChildBenefitChargeThresholds(phase_out_start=80_000.0, phase_out_end=60_000.0) -class _StubEngine: - country = "uk" - - def __init__(self) -> None: - self.calls: list[tuple[tuple[str, ...], str]] = [] - - def materialize(self, frame, variables, period): - self.calls.append((tuple(variables), str(period))) - person = frame.table("person") - return { - "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit": ( - person["age"].to_numpy() < 16 - ), - "adjusted_net_income": person["stub_income"].to_numpy(dtype=float), - } - - -def _frame(): - # Unit 1: a reporter with a child. Unit 2: fully charged, with two - # children. Unit 3: a low-income family. Unit 4: no child, reports. - person = pd.DataFrame( - { - "person_id": [11, 12, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 41], - "person_benunit_id": [1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4], - "person_household_id": [1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4], - "age": [40, 2, 45, 1, 2, 30, 0, 50], - "child_benefit_reported": [1_300.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 900.0], - "stub_income": [20_000.0, 0, 95_000.0, 0, 0, 15_000.0, 0, 10_000.0], - } - ) - benunit = pd.DataFrame( - { - "benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4], - "would_claim_child_benefit": [False, False, True, True], - "child_benefit_opts_out": [True, False, True, True], - } - ) - household = pd.DataFrame({"household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4], "region": ["WALES"] * 4}) - return uk_national_frame( - person=person, - benunit=benunit, - household=household, - household_weights=np.asarray([10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]), - weight_kind=WeightKind.IMPORTANCE, - time_period="2024", - ) - - def test_redraw_reads_the_engine_once_and_rewrites_only_the_two_flags() -> None: engine = _StubEngine() frame = _frame() @@ -404,3 +349,180 @@ def test_terminal_signal_gate_leaves_the_child_benefit_flags_to_the_stage_gate() ): outputs = {output for _, output, _ in UK_TAKE_UP_SIGNAL_OUTPUTS} assert not outputs & {"would_claim_child_benefit", "child_benefit_opts_out"} + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("supports_opt_out", [False, True]) +def test_export_preserves_registered_claims_only_with_opt_out_aware_engine( + supports_opt_out: bool, +) -> None: + # UK #2140 reads opt-out separately. Older models pay the would-claim + # flag directly, so their export must keep the legacy in-payment flag. + statistics = replace( + _statistics({0: 1.0, 1: 1.0, 2: 1.0}), families_opted_out=500.0 + ) + result = redraw_child_benefit_take_up( + _frame(), + engine=_StubEngine(), + statistics=statistics, + thresholds=replace( + THRESHOLDS, + supports_opt_out=supports_opt_out, + opt_out_charge_share=1.0 if supports_opt_out else None, + ), + ) + after = result.frame.table("benunit").set_index("benunit_id") + assert after["would_claim_child_benefit"].to_dict() == { + 1: True, + 2: supports_opt_out, + 3: True, + 4: True, + } + assert after["child_benefit_opts_out"].to_dict() == { + 1: False, + 2: True, + 3: False, + 4: False, + } + # Draw audit quantities do not depend on the engine/export encoding. + assert result.claims["eligible_family_units"] == 3 + assert result.opt_outs["opted_out_families"] == 10.0 + assert result.in_payment["families"] == 20.0 + assert result.in_payment["children"] == 20.0 + assert result.changed_units["would_claim_child_benefit"] == 1 + supports_opt_out + assert result.evidence()["claim_export"] == { + "encoding": "registered_claims" if supports_opt_out else "legacy_payment", + "supports_opt_out": supports_opt_out, + "engine_parameters_source": "caller", + } + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("supports_opt_out", [False, True]) +def test_redraw_keeps_nonclaimants_false_under_either_export_contract( + supports_opt_out: bool, +) -> None: + # Only the reporting family claims; independent early opt-out flags on + # nonclaimants must not turn them into registered claims. + result = redraw_child_benefit_take_up( + _frame(), + engine=_StubEngine(), + statistics=_statistics({0: 0.0, 1: 0.0, 2: 0.0}), + thresholds=replace( + THRESHOLDS, + supports_opt_out=supports_opt_out, + opt_out_charge_share=1.0 if supports_opt_out else None, + ), + ) + after = result.frame.table("benunit").set_index("benunit_id") + assert after.loc[2:3, "would_claim_child_benefit"].tolist() == [False, False] + assert after.loc[2:3, "child_benefit_opts_out"].tolist() == [False, False] + + +def test_committed_smoke_fixture_uses_current_child_benefit_contract() -> None: + # The integration smoke driver reconstructs this frozen stage descriptor, + # separately from the packaged country spec checked above. + path = ( + paths_for("microcosm-graph").tests + / "fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json" + ) + descriptor = json.loads(path.read_text()) + stage = SourceStageSpec.from_mapping( + descriptor["stages"][CHILD_BENEFIT_TAKE_UP_STAGE_NAME] + ) + _assert_stage_parameters(stage) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("supports_opt_out", [False, True]) +def test_new_contract_reports_shortfall_without_paid_taper_spillover( + supports_opt_out: bool, +) -> None: + # Weighted claims total 40; the 50% target is 20. Only 2 fully charged + # families are eligible under share=1, while 30 sit in the paid taper. + thresholds = replace( + THRESHOLDS, + supports_opt_out=supports_opt_out, + opt_out_charge_share=1.0 if supports_opt_out else None, + ) + opt_out, receipt = assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( + claims=np.asarray([True, True, True, True, False, False]), + reporter=np.asarray([False, False, True, False, False, False]), + highest_income=np.asarray([80_000, 70_000, 95_000, 60_000, 95_000, 95_000]), + children=np.asarray([2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0]), + weights=np.asarray([2.0, 30.0, 5.0, 3.0, 7.0, 11.0]), + draws=np.zeros(6), + statistics=replace(_statistics(), families_opted_out=500.0), + thresholds=thresholds, + ) + assert opt_out.tolist() == [True, not supports_opt_out, False, False, False, False] + assert receipt["target_families"] == 20.0 + assert receipt["pool_shortfall_families"] == (18.0 if supports_opt_out else 0.0) + assert receipt["pool_exhausted"] is supports_opt_out + assert receipt["opted_out_children"] == (4.0 if supports_opt_out else 34.0) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + ("share", "expected"), + [ + (1.0, [False, False, False, False, False, True, True]), + (0.5, [False, False, False, False, True, True, True]), + (0.0, [False, False, True, True, True, True, True]), + (1.1, [False, False, False, False, False, False, False]), + ], +) +def test_new_opt_out_pool_matches_positive_charge_share_boundaries(share, expected): + income = np.asarray([59_999, 60_000, 60_001, 69_999, 70_000, 80_000, 90_000]) + opt_out, receipt = assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( + claims=np.ones(7, dtype=bool), + reporter=np.zeros(7, dtype=bool), + highest_income=income, + children=np.ones(7), + weights=np.ones(7), + draws=np.zeros(7), + statistics=replace(_statistics(), families_opted_out=990.0), + thresholds=replace( + THRESHOLDS, supports_opt_out=True, opt_out_charge_share=share + ), + ) + assert opt_out.tolist() == expected + assert receipt["opt_out_charge_share"] == share + assert receipt["pool_shortfall_families"] == pytest.approx(6.93 - sum(expected)) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("share", [None, float("nan"), float("inf"), "1", True]) +def test_opt_out_capability_requires_a_finite_numeric_share(share): + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="opt_out_charge_share.*finite numeric"): + replace(THRESHOLDS, supports_opt_out=True, opt_out_charge_share=share) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("end", [60_000.0, 50_000.0]) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("supports_opt_out", [False, True]) +def test_both_contracts_reject_nonpositive_taper_width(end, supports_opt_out): + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="0 < start < end"): + replace(THRESHOLDS, phase_out_end=end, supports_opt_out=supports_opt_out) + + +def test_new_contract_preserves_draws_when_full_charge_pool_is_sufficient(): + arguments = dict( + claims=np.ones(4, dtype=bool), + reporter=np.zeros(4, dtype=bool), + highest_income=np.asarray([80_000, 90_000, 100_000, 70_000]), + children=np.ones(4), + weights=np.full(4, 10.0), + draws=np.asarray([0.05, 0.4, 0.8, 0.0]), + statistics=_statistics(), + ) + legacy, legacy_receipt = assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( + **arguments, thresholds=THRESHOLDS + ) + modern, modern_receipt = assign_child_benefit_opt_outs( + **arguments, + thresholds=replace(THRESHOLDS, supports_opt_out=True, opt_out_charge_share=1.0), + ) + assert legacy.tolist() == modern.tolist() == [True, False, False, False] + assert legacy_receipt["pools"][0] == modern_receipt["pools"][0] + # The new contract removes the paid taper candidate even when its draw + # rate would be zero; the unchanged full-charge pool selects identically. + assert legacy_receipt["pools"][1]["units"] == 1 + assert modern_receipt["pools"][1]["units"] == 0 + assert legacy_receipt["pools"][1]["rate"] == modern_receipt["pools"][1]["rate"] == 0 + assert modern_receipt["pool_shortfall_families"] == 0.0 + assert modern_receipt["pool_exhausted"] is False diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index a47c1b7af..da0120f78 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -435,7 +435,7 @@ ], "grain": "benunit", "nonnegative_outputs": [], - "notes": "Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit's income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person's eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person's adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC's published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage's household weights. The published share of registered families that opted out of payment (August 2025) of the claiming families then opts out, drawn among claiming families that do not report receipt and whose highest adjusted net income is at or above the income at which the High Income Child Benefit Charge takes the whole benefit, then inside the taper for any remainder. The engine pays on would_claim_child_benefit alone, so the stage stores claims-and-not-opted-out there and the opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out; a benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out.", + "notes": "Runs after the SPI income chain, UC capital coherence and the Pension Credit redraw, before CGT cloning (microcosm#1063). frs_take_up draws would_claim_child_benefit early at one flat rate over every benefit unit with the reporters on top, and child_benefit_opts_out at a flat rate whatever the unit's income; this stage redraws both. One temporary engine materialization gives each person's eligibility as a child or qualifying young person and each person's adjusted net income (consumed only). A family claims for all its children or none, so the draw is by family, keyed on the age of its eldest eligible child: a reporter claims, and the other families claim at rates solved from the eldest age down so that the claimed share of the eligible children of each single year of age is HMRC's published one (Table 15, May 2025, opted-out families included), weighted at the stage's household weights. The published opted-out share of registered families (August 2025) is drawn among claiming non-reporters, fully charged first. Opt-out-aware models restrict both the full-charge and taper pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share. With the default share of one, only fully charged families can opt out; an insufficient pool is recorded as a shortfall instead of selecting paid taper families. Legacy models retain the original full-charge pool and taper fallback. Models exposing gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share (policyengine-uk#2140) receive registered claims, including opted-out families, in would_claim_child_benefit and the separate opt-out in child_benefit_opts_out. Older models receive the legacy claims-and-not-opted-out payment flag because they ignore the opt-out input. Stage evidence records the selected encoding, evaluated opt-out charge share and engine parameter source. The in-payment audit counts claims-and-not-opted-out in the draw, with new candidates aligned to baseline payment suppression; it is not a fresh model run or population calibration evidence. A benefit unit with no eligible child keeps its early draw and is never opted out.", "operations": [ { "consumed_only": true, @@ -476,13 +476,13 @@ "kind": "assign_opt_out_by_charge_income", "numerator_measure": "families_opted_out_claimant_all", "output": "child_benefit_opts_out", - "payment_rule": "would_claim_child_benefit = claims and not opted out on families with an eligible child; a benefit unit without one keeps its early draw", + "payment_rule": "would_claim_child_benefit = claims on families with an eligible child when the model exposes gov.hmrc.child_benefit.opt_out_charge_share; otherwise claims and not opted out for legacy models; a benefit unit without an eligible child keeps its early draw", "pools": [ "fully_charged", "taper" ], "resource": "hmrc_child_benefit_statistics.json", - "rule": "published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families with the highest adjusted net income at or above the full-charge income, then, for any remainder, among those inside the taper", + "rule": "published opted-out share of registered families, of the claiming families; drawn among claiming non-reporting families, fully charged first then inside the taper; opt-out-aware models restrict both pools to a positive charge fraction at least the installed opt_out_charge_share, recording any pool shortfall; legacy models retain the unfiltered pools", "seed": 0, "weight_mapping": "household_to_benunit" } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 38bf635ca..f4198b266 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ 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+ + +class _StubEngine: + country = "uk" + + def __init__(self) -> None: + self.calls: list[tuple[tuple[str, ...], str]] = [] + + def materialize(self, frame, variables, period): + self.calls.append((tuple(variables), str(period))) + person = frame.table("person") + return { + "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit": ( + person["age"].to_numpy() < 16 + ), + "adjusted_net_income": person["stub_income"].to_numpy(dtype=float), + } + + +def _frame(): + # Unit 1: a reporter with a child. Unit 2: fully charged, with two + # children. Unit 3: a low-income family. Unit 4: no child, reports. + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [11, 12, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 41], + "person_benunit_id": [1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4], + "person_household_id": [1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4], + "age": [40, 2, 45, 1, 2, 30, 0, 50], + "child_benefit_reported": [1_300.0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 900.0], + "stub_income": [20_000.0, 0, 95_000.0, 0, 0, 15_000.0, 0, 10_000.0], + } + ) + benunit = pd.DataFrame( + { + "benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4], + "would_claim_child_benefit": [False, False, True, True], + "child_benefit_opts_out": [True, False, True, True], + } + ) + household = pd.DataFrame({"household_id": [1, 2, 3, 4], "region": ["WALES"] * 4}) + return uk_national_frame( + person=person, + benunit=benunit, + household=household, + household_weights=np.asarray([10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]), + weight_kind=WeightKind.IMPORTANCE, + time_period="2024", + ) + + +def _taper_frame(): + """A scarce full-charge pool, a taper family and an independent nonclaimant.""" + frame = _frame() + person = frame.table("person").copy() + person.loc[person.person_id == 31, "stub_income"] = 70_000.0 + person = pd.concat( + [ + person, + pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [51, 52], + "person_benunit_id": [5, 5], + "person_household_id": [5, 5], + "age": [40, 3], + "child_benefit_reported": [0.0, 0.0], + "stub_income": [95_000.0, 0.0], + } + ), + ], + ignore_index=True, + ) + benunit = pd.concat( + [ + frame.table("benunit"), + pd.DataFrame( + { + "benunit_id": [5], + "would_claim_child_benefit": [False], + "child_benefit_opts_out": [True], + } + ), + ], + ignore_index=True, + ) + household = pd.concat( + [ + frame.table("household"), + pd.DataFrame({"household_id": [5], "region": ["WALES"]}), + ], + ignore_index=True, + ) + return uk_national_frame( + person=person, + benunit=benunit, + household=household, + household_weights=np.asarray([10.0, 2.0, 20.0, 10.0, 5.0]), + weight_kind=WeightKind.IMPORTANCE, + time_period="2026", + )