From ff4992ab61cae923705ca94e8eb4efad085e22ef Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 02:34:50 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households The frs_brma stage drew BRMAs in proportion to row counts of the 2019-20 LHA list of rents. Its Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland lists are byte-identical copies of English BRMAs' lists (matched on the April 2019 rate), so those nations' draws ignored their rental markets: Greater Glasgow had 2% of the Scottish entries against 16% of Scotland's private renters. Replace brma_rent_counts.json with brma_private_rented_households.json: private-rented households by region and BRMA from the censuses (England and Wales 2021, Scotland 2022, Northern Ireland 2021), using the bedroom band matching each LHA category (A and B one bedroom, C two, D three, E four or more; Northern Ireland has no bedrooms question, so its counts weight every category). The generator pins the households CSV by sha256 and row count. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk/brma_private_rented_households.json | 1368 +++++++++++++++++ .../microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json | 1167 -------------- .../microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json | 2 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 6 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 6 +- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py | 4 +- .../engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py | 4 +- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py | 87 +- .../tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_spine.py | 6 +- .../uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py | 2 +- .../parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 6 +- tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py | 105 -- tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py | 114 ++ 13 files changed, 1571 insertions(+), 1306 deletions(-) create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json delete mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json delete mode 100644 tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py create mode 100644 tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..d353a82fc --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json @@ -0,0 +1,1368 @@ +{ + "cells": { + "EAST_MIDLANDS": { + "A": { + "CHERWELL_VALLEY": 356, + "CHESTERFIELD": 1745, + "COVENTRY": 12, + "DERBY": 5006, + "DONCASTER": 60, + "EASTERN_STAFFORDSHIRE": 577, + "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 1613, + "GRIMSBY": 71, + "KINGS_LYNN": 9, + "LEICESTER": 14418, + "LINCOLN": 2702, + "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 1705, + "MILTON_KEYNES": 69, + "NORTHAMPTON": 4425, + "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 3023, + "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 2835, + "NOTTINGHAM": 10467, + "PEAKS_DALES": 1203, + "PETERBOROUGH": 735, + "RUGBY_EAST": 530, + "SCUNTHORPE": 38, + "SHEFFIELD": 254, + "SOUTHERN_GREATER_MANCHESTER": 303, + "TAMESIDE_GLOSSOP": 295, + "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 2058 + }, + "B": { + "CHERWELL_VALLEY": 356, + "CHESTERFIELD": 1745, + "COVENTRY": 12, + "DERBY": 5006, + "DONCASTER": 60, + "EASTERN_STAFFORDSHIRE": 577, + "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 1613, + "GRIMSBY": 71, + "KINGS_LYNN": 9, + "LEICESTER": 14418, + "LINCOLN": 2702, + "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 1705, + "MILTON_KEYNES": 69, + "NORTHAMPTON": 4425, + "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 3023, + "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 2835, + "NOTTINGHAM": 10467, + "PEAKS_DALES": 1203, + "PETERBOROUGH": 735, + "RUGBY_EAST": 530, + "SCUNTHORPE": 38, + "SHEFFIELD": 254, + "SOUTHERN_GREATER_MANCHESTER": 303, + "TAMESIDE_GLOSSOP": 295, + "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 2058 + }, + "C": { + "CHERWELL_VALLEY": 878, + "CHESTERFIELD": 5822, + "COVENTRY": 49, + "DERBY": 14355, + "DONCASTER": 129, + "EASTERN_STAFFORDSHIRE": 2367, + "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 5029, + "GRIMSBY": 556, + "KINGS_LYNN": 38, + "LEICESTER": 30198, + "LINCOLN": 10111, + "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 4998, + 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"WORCESTER_NORTH": 1470, + "WORCESTER_SOUTH": 2200 + } + }, + "YORKSHIRE": { + "A": { + "BARNSLEY": 1719, + "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 9183, + "DARLINGTON": 30, + "DONCASTER": 3600, + "GRIMSBY": 1781, + "HALIFAX": 3065, + "HARROGATE": 2575, + "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 7563, + "KIRKLEES": 6427, + "LANCASTER": 65, + "LEEDS": 17077, + "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 1030, + "ROTHERHAM": 1844, + "SCARBOROUGH": 3062, + "SCUNTHORPE": 1278, + "SHEFFIELD": 9218, + "TEESSIDE": 69, + "WAKEFIELD": 2901, + "YORK": 4416 + }, + "B": { + "BARNSLEY": 1719, + "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 9183, + "DARLINGTON": 30, + "DONCASTER": 3600, + "GRIMSBY": 1781, + "HALIFAX": 3065, + "HARROGATE": 2575, + "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 7563, + "KIRKLEES": 6427, + "LANCASTER": 65, + "LEEDS": 17077, + "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 1030, + "ROTHERHAM": 1844, + "SCARBOROUGH": 3062, + "SCUNTHORPE": 1278, + "SHEFFIELD": 9218, + "TEESSIDE": 69, + "WAKEFIELD": 2901, + "YORK": 4416 + }, + "C": { + "BARNSLEY": 8351, + "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 19213, + "DARLINGTON": 124, + "DONCASTER": 11032, + "GRIMSBY": 4675, + "HALIFAX": 8884, + "HARROGATE": 5125, + "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 20021, + "KIRKLEES": 14498, + "LANCASTER": 175, + "LEEDS": 30655, + "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 3523, + "ROTHERHAM": 6221, + "SCARBOROUGH": 5365, + "SCUNTHORPE": 3523, + "SHEFFIELD": 15124, + "TEESSIDE": 306, + "WAKEFIELD": 10410, + "YORK": 11288 + }, + "D": { + "BARNSLEY": 7314, + "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 16770, + "DARLINGTON": 165, + "DONCASTER": 13397, + "GRIMSBY": 8531, + "HALIFAX": 5210, + "HARROGATE": 3696, + "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 15550, + "KIRKLEES": 10182, + "LANCASTER": 180, + "LEEDS": 18484, + "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 3793, + "ROTHERHAM": 7277, + "SCARBOROUGH": 3776, + "SCUNTHORPE": 5819, + "SHEFFIELD": 14361, + "TEESSIDE": 285, + "WAKEFIELD": 7924, + "YORK": 7161 + }, + "E": { + "BARNSLEY": 1186, + "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 5780, + "DARLINGTON": 69, + "DONCASTER": 2579, + "GRIMSBY": 1019, + "HALIFAX": 1281, + "HARROGATE": 1516, + "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 4392, + "KIRKLEES": 2840, + "LANCASTER": 49, + "LEEDS": 10626, + "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 1355, + "ROTHERHAM": 999, + "SCARBOROUGH": 1347, + "SCUNTHORPE": 871, + "SHEFFIELD": 5487, + "TEESSIDE": 116, + "WAKEFIELD": 1738, + "YORK": 4076 + } + } + }, + "chronicle": { + "note": "Provenance registration is intentionally outside PR-CI scope.", + "status": "registration pending" + }, + "country": "uk", + "policy": "BRMA assignment samples private-rented households by region and BRMA from the censuses, using the bedroom band that matches each LHA category (A and B: one bedroom; C: two; D: three; E: four or more). Northern Ireland's census has no bedrooms question, so its counts weight every category.", + "source": { + "artifact": "brma_private_rented_households.csv", + "cell_count": 60, + "census_years": { + "england_wales": 2021, + "northern_ireland": 2021, + "scotland": 2022 + }, + "provenance": "Private-rented households (private landlord or letting agency plus other private rented) by region, BRMA and bedrooms: ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales; TS054 by LSOA with the LSOA's private-rented-or-rent-free bedroom mix), NRS Scotland's Census 2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 (tenure by Data Zone). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA (May 2020), Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE BRMA geographies.", + "rows": 936, + "sha256": "3ba714d4f5267656f19cd60785da379804420f633aa4c5745bdd0fba20473e72", + "unique_brmas": 200 + }, + "version": 2 +} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json deleted file mode 100644 index 76f5deedf..000000000 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json +++ /dev/null @@ -1,1167 +0,0 @@ -{ - "cells": { - "EAST_MIDLANDS": { - "A": { - "CHESTERFIELD": 123, - "DERBY": 517, - "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 186, - "LEICESTER": 1860, - "LINCOLN": 453, - "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 464, - "NORTHAMPTON": 552, - "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 642, - "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 226, - "NOTTINGHAM": 869, - "PEAKS_DALES": 459 - }, - "B": { - "CHESTERFIELD": 423, - "DERBY": 1217, - "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 346, - "LEICESTER": 2685, - "LINCOLN": 695, - "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 711, - "NORTHAMPTON": 1018, - "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 714, - "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 599, - "NOTTINGHAM": 1179, - "PEAKS_DALES": 481 - }, - "C": { - "CHESTERFIELD": 1506, - "DERBY": 3556, - "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 809, - "LEICESTER": 6363, - "LINCOLN": 2753, - "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 2500, - "NORTHAMPTON": 2507, - "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 2284, - "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 2438, - "NOTTINGHAM": 3326, - "PEAKS_DALES": 1194 - }, - "D": { - "CHESTERFIELD": 907, - "DERBY": 2198, - "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 830, - "LEICESTER": 4534, - "LINCOLN": 1942, - "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 2157, - "NORTHAMPTON": 1516, - "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 2139, - "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 2865, - "NOTTINGHAM": 2089, - "PEAKS_DALES": 905 - }, - "E": { - "CHESTERFIELD": 196, - "DERBY": 554, - "GRANTHAM_NEWARK": 182, - "LEICESTER": 1193, - "LINCOLN": 365, - "LINCOLNSHIRE_FENS": 319, - "NORTHAMPTON": 409, - "NORTHANTS_CENTRAL": 424, - "NORTH_NOTTINGHAM": 362, - "NOTTINGHAM": 452, - "PEAKS_DALES": 259 - } - }, - "EAST_OF_ENGLAND": { - "A": { - "BEDFORD": 120, - "BURY_ST_EDMUNDS": 346, - 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"HARLOW_STORTFORD": 1261, - "HUNTINGDON": 913, - "IPSWICH": 2819, - "KINGS_LYNN": 2261, - "LOWESTOFT_GREAT_YARMOUTH": 2163, - "LUTON": 1985, - "PETERBOROUGH": 4985, - "SOUTHEND": 2629, - "SOUTH_EAST_HERTS": 1916, - "SOUTH_WEST_ESSEX": 2135, - "SOUTH_WEST_HERTS": 3473, - "STEVENAGE_NORTH_HERTS": 1443 - }, - "D": { - "BEDFORD": 1051, - "BURY_ST_EDMUNDS": 1717, - "CAMBRIDGE": 2754, - "CENTRAL_NORFOLK_NORWICH": 2873, - "CHELMSFORD": 1215, - "COLCHESTER": 1578, - "HARLOW_STORTFORD": 767, - "HUNTINGDON": 556, - "IPSWICH": 2012, - "KINGS_LYNN": 1816, - "LOWESTOFT_GREAT_YARMOUTH": 1889, - "LUTON": 1515, - "PETERBOROUGH": 3858, - "SOUTHEND": 1452, - "SOUTH_EAST_HERTS": 985, - "SOUTH_WEST_ESSEX": 1222, - "SOUTH_WEST_HERTS": 1381, - "STEVENAGE_NORTH_HERTS": 822 - }, - "E": { - "BEDFORD": 277, - "BURY_ST_EDMUNDS": 607, - "CAMBRIDGE": 1016, - "CENTRAL_NORFOLK_NORWICH": 826, - "CHELMSFORD": 353, - "COLCHESTER": 449, - "HARLOW_STORTFORD": 304, - "HUNTINGDON": 213, - "IPSWICH": 396, - "KINGS_LYNN": 359, - 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"STAFFORDSHIRE_NORTH": 1945, - "WARWICKSHIRE_SOUTH": 1264, - "WORCESTER_NORTH": 1214, - "WORCESTER_SOUTH": 1248 - }, - "E": { - "BIRMINGHAM": 551, - "BLACK_COUNTRY": 571, - "COVENTRY": 362, - "EASTERN_STAFFORDSHIRE": 267, - "HEREFORDSHIRE": 267, - "MID_STAFFS": 639, - "RUGBY_EAST": 328, - "SHROPSHIRE": 697, - "SOLIHULL": 221, - "STAFFORDSHIRE_NORTH": 333, - "WARWICKSHIRE_SOUTH": 407, - "WORCESTER_NORTH": 254, - "WORCESTER_SOUTH": 306 - } - }, - "YORKSHIRE": { - "A": { - "BARNSLEY": 366, - "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 186, - "DONCASTER": 1004, - "GRIMSBY": 287, - "HALIFAX": 150, - "HARROGATE": 268, - "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 1411, - "KIRKLEES": 79, - "LEEDS": 199, - "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 437, - "ROTHERHAM": 343, - "SCARBOROUGH": 77, - "SCUNTHORPE": 160, - "SHEFFIELD": 184, - "WAKEFIELD": 88, - "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 188, - "YORK": 437 - }, - "B": { - "BARNSLEY": 245, - "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 1292, - "DONCASTER": 715, - "GRIMSBY": 374, - "HALIFAX": 824, - "HARROGATE": 913, - "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 1502, - "KIRKLEES": 1339, - "LEEDS": 1977, - "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 474, - "ROTHERHAM": 403, - "SCARBOROUGH": 577, - "SCUNTHORPE": 299, - "SHEFFIELD": 2410, - "WAKEFIELD": 485, - "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 625, - "YORK": 1228 - }, - "C": { - "BARNSLEY": 2130, - "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 2827, - "DONCASTER": 2543, - "GRIMSBY": 915, - "HALIFAX": 2781, - "HARROGATE": 2146, - "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 3871, - "KIRKLEES": 3341, - "LEEDS": 4579, - "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 1811, - "ROTHERHAM": 1589, - "SCARBOROUGH": 1249, - "SCUNTHORPE": 746, - "SHEFFIELD": 4929, - "WAKEFIELD": 1632, - "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 1313, - "YORK": 4006 - }, - "D": { - "BARNSLEY": 1493, - "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 1385, - "DONCASTER": 2707, - "GRIMSBY": 1467, - "HALIFAX": 1181, - "HARROGATE": 1083, - "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 2232, - "KIRKLEES": 1682, - "LEEDS": 1904, - "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 1332, - "ROTHERHAM": 1988, - "SCARBOROUGH": 651, - "SCUNTHORPE": 923, - "SHEFFIELD": 3247, - "WAKEFIELD": 968, - "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 874, - "YORK": 2071 - }, - "E": { - "BARNSLEY": 212, - "BRADFORD_SOUTH_DALES": 374, - "DONCASTER": 297, - "GRIMSBY": 100, - "HALIFAX": 249, - "HARROGATE": 485, - "HULL_EAST_RIDING": 525, - "KIRKLEES": 472, - "LEEDS": 718, - "RICHMOND_HAMBLETON": 325, - "ROTHERHAM": 205, - "SCARBOROUGH": 140, - "SCUNTHORPE": 124, - "SHEFFIELD": 571, - "WAKEFIELD": 191, - "WOLDS_AND_COAST": 160, - "YORK": 942 - } - } - }, - "chronicle": { - "note": "Provenance registration is intentionally outside PR-CI scope.", - "status": "registration pending" - }, - "country": "uk", - "policy": "BRMA assignment samples a committed VOA LHA list-of-rents count table by (region, LHA_category); count-weighted categorical sampling is distributionally equivalent to uniform row sampling from the pooled 2019 and 2020 rows.", - "source": { - "artifact": "lha_list_of_rents.csv.gz", - "cell_count": 60, - "provenance": "Valuation Office Agency Local Housing Allowance list of rents CSV staged for the incumbent UK pipeline at rev ebf733c.", - "rows": 1257744, - "sha256": "4956a20a5e5a04be5a00abd6b841d29b96da27ca539e522dd570537031120a02", - "unique_brmas": 200, - "years": [ - 2019, - 2020 - ] - }, - "version": 1 -} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json index 60e08be56..97f38ec38 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json @@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ "schema_id": "legacy_json" }, { - "path": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "path": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "kind": "legacy_json", "schema_id": "legacy_json" }, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 09990c633..d2df84592 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1163,12 +1163,12 @@ { "stage": "frs_brma", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25", - "source": "Valuation Office Agency LHA list-of-rents count table and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor.", + "source": "Census private-rented households by region, BRMA and bedrooms (ONS and NISRA 2021, NRS 2022) and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor.", "grain": "household", "artifacts": [ { "role": "count_resource", - "resource": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "resource": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "kind": "public_aggregated_counts", "format": "json" } @@ -1184,7 +1184,7 @@ { "kind": "sample_categorical_from_count_table", "output": "brma", - "count_resource": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "count_resource": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "cell_columns": [ "region", "LHA_category" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index 7c553946e..389a74515 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1035,11 +1035,11 @@ stages: notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100. TV evasion remains an independent draw, matching the incumbent reference share. - stage: frs_brma survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 - source: Valuation Office Agency LHA list-of-rents count table and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor. + source: Census private-rented households by region, BRMA and bedrooms (ONS and NISRA 2021, NRS 2022) and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor. grain: household artifacts: - role: count_resource - resource: brma_rent_counts.json + resource: brma_private_rented_households.json kind: public_aggregated_counts format: json operations: @@ -1049,7 +1049,7 @@ stages: consumed_only: true - kind: sample_categorical_from_count_table output: brma - count_resource: brma_rent_counts.json + count_resource: brma_private_rented_households.json cell_columns: - region - LHA_category diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py index d4fbe9434..9e0fbc297 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -"""UK FRS BRMA stochastic assignment from a committed count table.""" +"""UK FRS BRMA stochastic assignment from committed census household counts.""" from __future__ import annotations @@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: def load_brma_count_resource() -> Mapping[str, Any]: return json.loads( - files("microcosm.build.uk").joinpath("brma_rent_counts.json").read_text() + files("microcosm.build.uk").joinpath("brma_private_rented_households.json").read_text() ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py index 8119fac95..2a651eb72 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py @@ -926,7 +926,7 @@ def test_spi_spine_adds_no_country_package_resources(self) -> None: "frs_release.json", "chronicle_feed.json", "gates.json", - "brma_rent_counts.json", + "brma_private_rented_households.json", "calibration_measure_exclusions.json", "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "hmrc_cgt_asset_type_facts.json", @@ -1045,7 +1045,7 @@ def test_uk_package_loads(self) -> None: "frs_release.json", "chronicle_feed.json", "gates.json", - "brma_rent_counts.json", + "brma_private_rented_households.json", "calibration_measure_exclusions.json", "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "hmrc_cgt_asset_type_facts.json", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py index 853b19705..b625732a2 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py @@ -14,19 +14,21 @@ ROOT = _TEST_PATHS.repository -# The VOA rents CSV is a staged input, not repo content: the regeneration -# check runs wherever it is staged (point UK_LHA_RENTS_CSV at it) and skips -# elsewhere, including PR CI. The committed resource's integrity is still -# pinned in CI by the source-facts test below, which holds its sha256, row -# count, and cell/BRMA counts against the generator's constants. -STAGED_LHA_RENTS = Path( +# The census households CSV is a staged input, not repo content: the +# regeneration check runs wherever it is staged (point UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV +# at it) and skips elsewhere, including PR CI. The committed resource's +# integrity is still pinned in CI by the source-facts test below, which holds +# its sha256, row count, and cell/BRMA counts against the generator's constants. +STAGED_HOUSEHOLDS = Path( os.environ.get( - "UK_LHA_RENTS_CSV", - ROOT / ".codex-work/incumbent/storage/lha_list_of_rents.csv.gz", + "UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV", + ROOT / ".codex-work/incumbent/storage/brma_private_rented_households.csv", ) ) -GENERATOR = ROOT / "tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py" -_SPEC = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("build_uk_brma_count_table", GENERATOR) +GENERATOR = ROOT / "tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py" +_SPEC = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location( + "build_uk_brma_household_table", GENERATOR +) assert _SPEC is not None and _SPEC.loader is not None _generator = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_SPEC) _SPEC.loader.exec_module(_generator) @@ -34,19 +36,36 @@ EXPECTED_SHA256 = _generator.EXPECTED_SHA256 build_resource = _generator.build_resource +REGIONS = { + "NORTH_EAST", + "NORTH_WEST", + "YORKSHIRE", + "EAST_MIDLANDS", + "WEST_MIDLANDS", + "EAST_OF_ENGLAND", + "LONDON", + "SOUTH_EAST", + "SOUTH_WEST", + "WALES", + "SCOTLAND", + "NORTHERN_IRELAND", +} + def _resource() -> dict: return json.loads( - files("microcosm.build.uk").joinpath("brma_rent_counts.json").read_text() + files("microcosm.build.uk") + .joinpath("brma_private_rented_households.json") + .read_text() ) @pytest.mark.skipif( - not STAGED_LHA_RENTS.exists(), - reason=f"staged VOA rents CSV not present at {STAGED_LHA_RENTS}", + not STAGED_HOUSEHOLDS.exists(), + reason=f"staged census households CSV not present at {STAGED_HOUSEHOLDS}", ) def test_committed_brma_resource_matches_regenerator() -> None: - assert _resource() == build_resource(STAGED_LHA_RENTS) + assert _resource() == build_resource(STAGED_HOUSEHOLDS) def test_brma_resource_shape_and_source_facts() -> None: @@ -55,17 +74,53 @@ def test_brma_resource_shape_and_source_facts() -> None: assert resource["country"] == "uk" assert resource["source"]["sha256"] == EXPECTED_SHA256 assert resource["source"]["rows"] == EXPECTED_ROWS - assert resource["source"]["years"] == [2019, 2020] + assert resource["source"]["census_years"] == { + "england_wales": 2021, + "northern_ireland": 2021, + "scotland": 2022, + } assert resource["source"]["cell_count"] == 60 assert resource["source"]["unique_brmas"] == 200 assert resource["chronicle"]["status"] == "registration pending" + assert set(resource["cells"]) == REGIONS + assert all(set(c) == set("ABCDE") for c in resource["cells"].values()) cell_counts = [ sum(brmas.values()) for categories in resource["cells"].values() for brmas in categories.values() ] assert len(cell_counts) == 60 - assert min(cell_counts) >= 1_144 + assert min(cell_counts) >= 18_000 + assert all( + count > 0 + for categories in resource["cells"].values() + for brmas in categories.values() + for count in brmas.values() + ) + + +def test_shared_and_one_bedroom_categories_share_one_bedroom_counts() -> None: + for categories in _resource()["cells"].values(): + assert categories["A"] == categories["B"] + + +def test_northern_ireland_weights_do_not_depend_on_category() -> None: + # Northern Ireland's 2021 census has no bedrooms question. + categories = _resource()["cells"]["NORTHERN_IRELAND"] + assert all(categories[c] == categories["A"] for c in "BCDE") + assert len(categories["A"]) == 8 + + +def test_glasgow_and_edinburgh_lead_scotland() -> None: + # Census 2022 private-rented households: Lothian 19.3%, Greater Glasgow + # 15.9%. The 2019-20 list-of-rents counts this replaced ranked Greater + # Glasgow last of 18. + scotland = _resource()["cells"]["SCOTLAND"] + totals = { + brma: sum(scotland[c].get(brma, 0) for c in "BCDE") for brma in scotland["B"] + } + top_two = sorted(totals, key=totals.get, reverse=True)[:2] + assert set(top_two) == {"LOTHIAN", "GREATER_GLASGOW"} def test_missing_brma_cell_fails_closed() -> None: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_spine.py index f9cf9ef37..ed312aced 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_spine.py @@ -805,7 +805,7 @@ def source_stage( extra_artifacts=( { "role": "count_resource", - "resource": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "resource": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "kind": "public_aggregated_counts", "format": "json", }, @@ -915,7 +915,7 @@ def source_stage( ), ), geography_spine=None, - resource_hashes={"brma_rent_counts.json": "f" * 64}, + resource_hashes={"brma_private_rented_households.json": "f" * 64}, ) @@ -1480,7 +1480,7 @@ def test_driver_writes_spine_h5_sidecars_and_logbook( "sha256": hashlib.sha256(replay_bytes).hexdigest(), } assert len(sidecar["stochastic_contract_sha256"]) == 64 - assert sidecar["resource_pins"] == {"brma_rent_counts.json": "f" * 64} + assert sidecar["resource_pins"] == {"brma_private_rented_households.json": "f" * 64} # Resolve the expected version the way the driver does, so the assertion # holds in the engine-hermetic lane too: the real version where # policyengine-uk is installed, the documented fallback where it is not. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py index 55797b0fc..2c60156a9 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py @@ -180,7 +180,7 @@ def test_tfc_routed_share_series_matches_pinned_chronicle_feed_when_present() -> def test_forbidden_source_dependency_strings_absent_from_uk_resources() -> None: - for resource in ("take_up_contract.json", "brma_rent_counts.json"): + for resource in ("take_up_contract.json", "brma_private_rented_households.json"): text = files("microcosm.build.uk").joinpath(resource).read_text().lower() assert "policyengine_" + "uk_data" not in text assert "policyengine-" + "uk-data" not in text diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index d79fbe2d7..70a8b6260 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -841,7 +841,7 @@ { "format": "json", "kind": "public_aggregated_counts", - "resource": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "resource": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "role": "count_resource" } ], @@ -864,7 +864,7 @@ ], "collapse_method": "uniform_member_pick", "collapse_to": "household", - "count_resource": "brma_rent_counts.json", + "count_resource": "brma_private_rented_households.json", "kind": "sample_categorical_from_count_table", "output": "brma", "seed": 0 @@ -874,7 +874,7 @@ "brma" ], "rewrites": [], - "source": "Valuation Office Agency LHA list-of-rents count table and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor.", + "source": "Census private-rented households by region, BRMA and bedrooms (ONS and NISRA 2021, NRS 2022) and policyengine-uk LHA_category predictor.", "stage": "frs_brma", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25" }, diff --git a/tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py b/tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py deleted file mode 100644 index cc3d53837..000000000 --- a/tools/build_uk_brma_count_table.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,105 +0,0 @@ -"""Build the UK BRMA count-table resource from the staged VOA rent CSV.""" - -from __future__ import annotations - -import argparse -import gzip -import hashlib -import json -import os -from pathlib import Path - -import pandas as pd - -EXPECTED_SHA256 = "4956a20a5e5a04be5a00abd6b841d29b96da27ca539e522dd570537031120a02" -EXPECTED_ROWS = 1_257_744 -# The VOA rents CSV is a staged input, not repo content. Point -# UK_LHA_RENTS_CSV at wherever it is staged, or pass --source. -DEFAULT_SOURCE = Path( - os.environ.get("UK_LHA_RENTS_CSV", "incumbent/storage/lha_list_of_rents.csv.gz") -) -DEFAULT_OUTPUT = Path( - "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_rent_counts.json" -) - - -def main() -> None: - parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() - parser.add_argument("--source", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_SOURCE) - parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_OUTPUT) - args = parser.parse_args() - payload = build_resource(args.source) - args.output.write_text( - json.dumps(payload, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n", - encoding="utf-8", - ) - - -def build_resource(source: Path) -> dict[str, object]: - digest = _sha256(source) - if digest != EXPECTED_SHA256: - raise ValueError(f"{source} sha256 {digest} != expected {EXPECTED_SHA256}.") - with gzip.open(source, "rt", encoding="utf-8") as handle: - rents = pd.read_csv(handle) - if len(rents) != EXPECTED_ROWS: - raise ValueError(f"{source} has {len(rents)} rows, expected {EXPECTED_ROWS}.") - required = {"year", "region", "lha_category", "brma"} - missing = required - set(rents.columns) - if missing: - raise ValueError(f"{source} is missing column(s): {sorted(missing)}.") - grouped = ( - rents.groupby(["region", "lha_category", "brma"], observed=True) - .size() - .rename("count") - .reset_index() - ) - cells: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, int]]] = {} - for row in grouped.sort_values(["region", "lha_category", "brma"]).itertuples( - index=False - ): - cells.setdefault(str(row.region), {}).setdefault(str(row.lha_category), {})[ - str(row.brma) - ] = int(row.count) - years = sorted(int(year) for year in rents["year"].unique()) - brmas = sorted(str(value) for value in rents["brma"].unique()) - return { - "version": 1, - "country": "uk", - "policy": ( - "BRMA assignment samples a committed VOA LHA list-of-rents count " - "table by (region, LHA_category); count-weighted categorical " - "sampling is distributionally equivalent to uniform row sampling " - "from the pooled 2019 and 2020 rows." - ), - "source": { - "artifact": source.name, - "sha256": digest, - "rows": int(len(rents)), - "years": years, - "provenance": ( - "Valuation Office Agency Local Housing Allowance list of rents " - "CSV staged for the incumbent UK pipeline at rev ebf733c." - ), - "unique_brmas": len(brmas), - "cell_count": int( - grouped[["region", "lha_category"]].drop_duplicates().shape[0] - ), - }, - "chronicle": { - "status": "registration pending", - "note": "Provenance registration is intentionally outside PR-CI scope.", - }, - "cells": cells, - } - - -def _sha256(path: Path) -> str: - digest = hashlib.sha256() - with path.open("rb") as handle: - for block in iter(lambda: handle.read(1024 * 1024), b""): - digest.update(block) - return digest.hexdigest() - - -if __name__ == "__main__": - main() diff --git a/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py b/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..400f26d15 --- /dev/null +++ b/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py @@ -0,0 +1,114 @@ +"""Build the UK BRMA count-table resource from census private-rented households.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import hashlib +import json +import os +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +EXPECTED_SHA256 = "3ba714d4f5267656f19cd60785da379804420f633aa4c5745bdd0fba20473e72" +EXPECTED_ROWS = 936 +# The households CSV is a staged input, not repo content. Point +# UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV at wherever it is staged, or pass --source. +DEFAULT_SOURCE = Path( + os.environ.get( + "UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV", + "incumbent/storage/brma_private_rented_households.csv", + ) +) +DEFAULT_OUTPUT = Path( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json" +) +# Census bedroom band whose households weight each LHA category; a region +# published without bedrooms (Northern Ireland, band "all") weights every one. +LHA_CATEGORY_BEDROOMS = {"A": "1", "B": "1", "C": "2", "D": "3", "E": "4+"} + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--source", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_SOURCE) + parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, default=DEFAULT_OUTPUT) + args = parser.parse_args() + payload = build_resource(args.source) + args.output.write_text( + json.dumps(payload, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n", + encoding="utf-8", + ) + + +def build_resource(source: Path) -> dict[str, object]: + digest = _sha256(source) + if digest != EXPECTED_SHA256: + raise ValueError(f"{source} sha256 {digest} != expected {EXPECTED_SHA256}.") + households = pd.read_csv(source, dtype={"bedrooms": str}) + if len(households) != EXPECTED_ROWS: + raise ValueError( + f"{source} has {len(households)} rows, expected {EXPECTED_ROWS}." + ) + if list(households.columns) != ["region", "brma", "bedrooms", "households"]: + raise ValueError(f"{source} columns are {list(households.columns)}.") + cells: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, int]]] = {} + for region, rows in households.groupby("region", sort=True): + bands = set(rows.bedrooms) + for category, band in LHA_CATEGORY_BEDROOMS.items(): + chosen = rows[rows.bedrooms == ("all" if bands == {"all"} else band)] + if chosen.empty or (chosen.households <= 0).any(): + raise ValueError(f"{region} has no positive {band} households.") + cells.setdefault(str(region), {})[category] = { + str(row.brma): int(row.households) + for row in chosen.sort_values("brma").itertuples(index=False) + } + return { + "version": 2, + "country": "uk", + "policy": ( + "BRMA assignment samples private-rented households by region and " + "BRMA from the censuses, using the bedroom band that matches each " + "LHA category (A and B: one bedroom; C: two; D: three; E: four or " + "more). Northern Ireland's census has no bedrooms question, so its " + "counts weight every category." + ), + "source": { + "artifact": source.name, + "sha256": digest, + "rows": int(len(households)), + "provenance": ( + "Private-rented households (private landlord or letting agency " + "plus other private rented) by region, BRMA and bedrooms: ONS " + "Census 2021 (England and Wales; TS054 by LSOA with the LSOA's " + "private-rented-or-rent-free bedroom mix), NRS Scotland's Census " + "2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 (tenure by " + "Data Zone). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA (May 2020), " + "Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE BRMA " + "geographies." + ), + "census_years": { + "england_wales": 2021, + "scotland": 2022, + "northern_ireland": 2021, + }, + "unique_brmas": int(households.brma.nunique()), + "cell_count": sum(len(categories) for categories in cells.values()), + }, + "chronicle": { + "status": "registration pending", + "note": "Provenance registration is intentionally outside PR-CI scope.", + }, + "cells": cells, + } + + +def _sha256(path: Path) -> str: + digest = hashlib.sha256() + with path.open("rb") as handle: + for block in iter(lambda: handle.read(1024 * 1024), b""): + digest.update(block) + return digest.hexdigest() + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() From 6eadf818885ff926be07b7c333df450efb8cc405 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 02:47:34 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] Regenerate UK release input coverage manifest for the source-stage change Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 30 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index 0feab8e5e..212450b63 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -468,7 +468,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -491,7 +491,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -513,7 +513,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -542,7 +542,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -562,7 +562,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -584,7 +584,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -608,7 +608,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "24a9440421f9c80ecf3f5ad7035b5b08626e02898f50e4a8ae9c0aad02821bfe", @@ -697,7 +697,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -738,7 +738,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9468 Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24 household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2023 mean kWh, the FY2024-25 Ofgem cap levels, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS), the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24" @@ -764,7 +764,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -785,7 +785,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and ONS UK House Price Index December 2025 regional average prices.", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -809,7 +809,7 @@ "employee_pension_contributions" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -831,7 +831,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -853,7 +853,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -888,7 +888,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "01567b46aa26765fea6afd4c9a64674f8ed5e2e8fe32de106a03ec06f1da33bd", + "source_manifest_sha256": "6f5b2364bbbf729436d4938586352c0603de5683ddc4670045f7cb9948c6bc0c", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" From 6a62501bf889bd05ae9b8e4cd8185e51dfcc1172 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 03:15:32 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] Re-pin the UK spine graph for the frs_brma stage contract Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index b3a16ab57..08276ef81 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} From ec0d0ee0ec838863735e220276a0b7cef4205397 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2026 03:40:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] Address review: OGL-only Northern Ireland counts and pinned cells Re-pin the generator to the revised households CSV, whose Northern Ireland rows now come only from NISRA and NIHE sources (each BRMA's households times NI's private-rented share). Pin the committed cells in CI by digest and by each nation's census total, test the fail-closed path through assign_brma_by_cell, give the generator and test one staged-CSV path, and re-pin the UK spine graph. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk/brma_private_rented_households.json | 84 +++++++++---------- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py | 47 +++++++++-- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py | 18 ++-- 4 files changed, 93 insertions(+), 58 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json index d353a82fc..8ec5af06a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/brma_private_rented_households.json @@ -353,54 +353,54 @@ }, "NORTHERN_IRELAND": { "A": { - "BELFAST": 31175, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 15652, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 23933, - "NORTH_NI": 7169, - "NORTH_WEST_NI": 12592, - "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 19530, - "SOUTH_NI": 12697, - "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9718 + "BELFAST": 26599, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 14176, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 26520, + "NORTH_NI": 6892, + "NORTH_WEST_NI": 11924, + "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 25164, + "SOUTH_NI": 12101, + "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9073 }, "B": { - "BELFAST": 31175, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 15652, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 23933, - "NORTH_NI": 7169, - "NORTH_WEST_NI": 12592, - "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 19530, - "SOUTH_NI": 12697, - "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9718 + "BELFAST": 26599, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 14176, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 26520, + "NORTH_NI": 6892, + "NORTH_WEST_NI": 11924, + "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 25164, + "SOUTH_NI": 12101, + "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9073 }, "C": { - "BELFAST": 31175, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 15652, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 23933, - "NORTH_NI": 7169, - "NORTH_WEST_NI": 12592, - "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 19530, - "SOUTH_NI": 12697, - "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9718 + "BELFAST": 26599, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 14176, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 26520, + "NORTH_NI": 6892, + "NORTH_WEST_NI": 11924, + "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 25164, + "SOUTH_NI": 12101, + "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9073 }, "D": { - "BELFAST": 31175, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 15652, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 23933, - "NORTH_NI": 7169, - "NORTH_WEST_NI": 12592, - "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 19530, - "SOUTH_NI": 12697, - "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9718 + "BELFAST": 26599, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 14176, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 26520, + "NORTH_NI": 6892, + "NORTH_WEST_NI": 11924, + "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 25164, + "SOUTH_NI": 12101, + "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9073 }, "E": { - "BELFAST": 31175, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 15652, - "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 23933, - "NORTH_NI": 7169, - "NORTH_WEST_NI": 12592, - "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 19530, - "SOUTH_NI": 12697, - "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9718 + "BELFAST": 26599, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_LOWER": 14176, + "LOUGH_NEAGH_UPPER": 26520, + "NORTH_NI": 6892, + "NORTH_WEST_NI": 11924, + "SOUTH_EAST_NI": 25164, + "SOUTH_NI": 12101, + "SOUTH_WEST_NI": 9073 } }, "NORTH_EAST": { @@ -1359,9 +1359,9 @@ "northern_ireland": 2021, "scotland": 2022 }, - "provenance": "Private-rented households (private landlord or letting agency plus other private rented) by region, BRMA and bedrooms: ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales; TS054 by LSOA with the LSOA's private-rented-or-rent-free bedroom mix), NRS Scotland's Census 2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 (tenure by Data Zone). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA (May 2020), Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE BRMA geographies.", + "provenance": "Private-rented households (private landlord or letting agency plus other private rented) by region, BRMA and bedrooms: ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales; TS054 by LSOA with the LSOA's private-rented-or-rent-free bedroom mix), NRS Scotland's Census 2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 (households by postcode district times Northern Ireland's private-rented share). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA (May 2020), Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE BRMA geographies.", "rows": 936, - "sha256": "3ba714d4f5267656f19cd60785da379804420f633aa4c5745bdd0fba20473e72", + "sha256": "fd40dae019e5eefb8c976873f69c66f9b74a0747505326e8098b0ad99cc2ae1f", "unique_brmas": 200 }, "version": 2 diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py index b625732a2..43b3b3546 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_brma_resource.py @@ -1,13 +1,16 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import hashlib import importlib.util import json import os from importlib.resources import files from pathlib import Path +import pandas as pd import pytest +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_brma import assign_brma_by_cell from test_support.paths import paths_for _TEST_PATHS = paths_for("microcosm-build") @@ -16,9 +19,8 @@ ROOT = _TEST_PATHS.repository # The census households CSV is a staged input, not repo content: the # regeneration check runs wherever it is staged (point UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV -# at it) and skips elsewhere, including PR CI. The committed resource's -# integrity is still pinned in CI by the source-facts test below, which holds -# its sha256, row count, and cell/BRMA counts against the generator's constants. +# at it) and skips elsewhere, including PR CI. In CI the committed cells are +# pinned by digest and by each nation's census total below. STAGED_HOUSEHOLDS = Path( os.environ.get( "UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV", @@ -123,8 +125,39 @@ def test_glasgow_and_edinburgh_lead_scotland() -> None: assert set(top_two) == {"LOTHIAN", "GREATER_GLASGOW"} -def test_missing_brma_cell_fails_closed() -> None: - resource = _resource() +# sha256 of the cells as compact sorted JSON; regenerate only with the CSV. +CELLS_SHA256 = "74a69e169516cbfc439b0d094a609dc71bc0288e6c61c7e71a4adfd53d426f0e" +# Private-rented households per nation in the source CSV (Census 2021/2022). +NATION_TOTALS = { + "ENGLAND": 4_795_158, + "WALES": 228_601, + "SCOTLAND": 323_001, + "NORTHERN_IRELAND": 132_449, +} + - with pytest.raises(KeyError): - resource["cells"]["LONDON"]["Z"] +def test_cells_are_pinned_in_ci() -> None: + cells = _resource()["cells"] + canonical = json.dumps(cells, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")).encode() + assert hashlib.sha256(canonical).hexdigest() == CELLS_SHA256 + totals: dict[str, int] = {} + for region, categories in cells.items(): + nation = region if region in NATION_TOTALS else "ENGLAND" + # A repeats B (both one-bedroom); Northern Ireland repeats one cell. + used = "A" if region == "NORTHERN_IRELAND" else "BCDE" + totals[nation] = totals.get(nation, 0) + sum( + sum(categories[c].values()) for c in used + ) + assert totals == NATION_TOTALS + + +def test_missing_brma_cell_fails_closed() -> None: + benunits = pd.DataFrame( + { + "benunit_id": [1, 2], + "region": ["LONDON", "LONDON"], + "LHA_category": ["B", "Z"], + } + ) + with pytest.raises(KeyError, match="missing BRMA count-table cell"): + assign_brma_by_cell(benunits, count_resource=_resource(), seed=0) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 08276ef81..33142d739 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} diff --git a/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py b/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py index 400f26d15..54261eb4c 100644 --- a/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py +++ b/tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py @@ -10,14 +10,14 @@ import pandas as pd -EXPECTED_SHA256 = "3ba714d4f5267656f19cd60785da379804420f633aa4c5745bdd0fba20473e72" +EXPECTED_SHA256 = "fd40dae019e5eefb8c976873f69c66f9b74a0747505326e8098b0ad99cc2ae1f" EXPECTED_ROWS = 936 # The households CSV is a staged input, not repo content. Point # UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV at wherever it is staged, or pass --source. DEFAULT_SOURCE = Path( os.environ.get( "UK_BRMA_HOUSEHOLDS_CSV", - "incumbent/storage/brma_private_rented_households.csv", + ".codex-work/incumbent/storage/brma_private_rented_households.csv", ) ) DEFAULT_OUTPUT = Path( @@ -55,9 +55,10 @@ def build_resource(source: Path) -> dict[str, object]: for region, rows in households.groupby("region", sort=True): bands = set(rows.bedrooms) for category, band in LHA_CATEGORY_BEDROOMS.items(): - chosen = rows[rows.bedrooms == ("all" if bands == {"all"} else band)] + used = "all" if bands == {"all"} else band + chosen = rows[rows.bedrooms == used] if chosen.empty or (chosen.households <= 0).any(): - raise ValueError(f"{region} has no positive {band} households.") + raise ValueError(f"{region} has no positive {used!r} households.") cells.setdefault(str(region), {})[category] = { str(row.brma): int(row.households) for row in chosen.sort_values("brma").itertuples(index=False) @@ -81,10 +82,11 @@ def build_resource(source: Path) -> dict[str, object]: "plus other private rented) by region, BRMA and bedrooms: ONS " "Census 2021 (England and Wales; TS054 by LSOA with the LSOA's " "private-rented-or-rent-free bedroom mix), NRS Scotland's Census " - "2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 (tenure by " - "Data Zone). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA (May 2020), " - "Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE BRMA " - "geographies." + "2022 (tenure by bedrooms by ward), NISRA Census 2021 " + "(households by postcode district times Northern Ireland's " + "private-rented share). Areas are mapped to BRMAs with the VOA " + "(May 2020), Rent Officers Wales, Scottish Government and NIHE " + "BRMA geographies." ), "census_years": { "england_wales": 2021, From 766df9499116b39fdf3cf7a926cfdf0042860c0b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2026 14:47:04 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 5/6] Format frs_brma resource loader and add the #1087 changelog fragment The resource rename lengthened load_brma_count_resource past ruff format's line width; main's copy was format-clean. No stage contract, spine graph or identity pin hashes this module's source bytes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../1087-uk-brma-census-private-rented-weights.fixed.md | 1 + .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py | 4 +++- 2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/1087-uk-brma-census-private-rented-weights.fixed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/1087-uk-brma-census-private-rented-weights.fixed.md b/changelog.d/1087-uk-brma-census-private-rented-weights.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..71a4f63c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/1087-uk-brma-census-private-rented-weights.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +UK BRMA assignment (`frs_brma`) now draws each benefit unit's Broad Rental Market Area in proportion to census private-rented households in its region and BRMA, using the bedroom band that matches its LHA category (A and B one bedroom, C two, D three, E four or more), instead of the row counts of the 2019-20 LHA list of rents, whose Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland lists are copies of English BRMAs' lists (uk-data#515). The counts come from England and Wales Census 2021, Scotland's Census 2022 and Northern Ireland Census 2021; Northern Ireland's census has no bedrooms question, so its counts weight every category. `brma_private_rented_households.json` replaces `brma_rent_counts.json` in the same `cells[region][LHA_category][brma]` shape, and `tools/build_uk_brma_household_table.py` rebuilds it from the households CSV that uk-data#516 adds (sha256 `fd40dae0…`, 936 rows) (microcosm#1087). diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py index 9e0fbc297..262cb0ed1 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_brma.py @@ -59,7 +59,9 @@ def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: def load_brma_count_resource() -> Mapping[str, Any]: return json.loads( - files("microcosm.build.uk").joinpath("brma_private_rented_households.json").read_text() + files("microcosm.build.uk") + .joinpath("brma_private_rented_households.json") + .read_text() ) From d23bd3e6230294b10394075a298098f2a74c54c0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2026 15:31:33 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] Describe the BRMA diagnostic's comparison table as census private-rented households Sol review of 766df949 (P3 nit): the docstring still described the old rents table. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- tools/emit_uk_brma_distribution.py | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/tools/emit_uk_brma_distribution.py b/tools/emit_uk_brma_distribution.py index 0f8e9c89f..499e00ec3 100644 --- a/tools/emit_uk_brma_distribution.py +++ b/tools/emit_uk_brma_distribution.py @@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ cells — because that is where the assignment is defined: within a cell the built benunit-level BRMA shares are multinomial around the count table's conditional distribution. A region-level margin would mix our benunit -category composition with the rents table's lettings-weighted composition -and mislead. +category composition with the census table's private-rented-household +composition and mislead. """ from __future__ import annotations