From 6dfabb6ebb9bd310b9588d602dcb8e19a549d8d0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "fedcourtsai-dev[bot]" <297417130+fedcourtsai-dev[bot]@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:36:53 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] predict(run 20261018T142134Z): 10 prediction(s) --- .../20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md | 32 + .../20261018T142134Z/prediction.json | 71 +++ .../20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md | 49 ++ .../20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md | 1 + .../20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json | 178 ++++++ .../20261018T142134Z/tooling.json | 12 + .../20261018T142134Z/usage.json | 47 ++ .../20261018T142134Z/flags.json | 15 + .../20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md | 11 + .../20261018T142134Z/prediction.json | 71 +++ .../20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md | 33 ++ .../20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md | 20 + .../20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json | 442 ++++++++++++++ .../20261018T142134Z/tooling.json | 28 + .../20261018T142134Z/usage.json | 47 ++ .../20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md | 5 + 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data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json create mode 100644 data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5543070a48 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ +# Forecast — Roybal v. Griffith, No. 25-442 (petition disposition) + +**Disposition: the Court grants, vacates, and remands to the Tenth Circuit for +further consideration in light of *West Virginia v. B.P.J.* (2026) and *United +States v. Skrmetti* (2025).** P(any grant) = 0.84. + +- **State of the docket.** Three distributions so far (12/12/2025; 6/29/2026, + after a long hold that tracks the pendency of *B.P.J.*; 11/6/2026, after the + SG's invited brief). A CVSG already issued (6/30/2026) and was answered + (9/25/2026). +- **Relists.** The likeliest path is disposition on the order list following + the 11/6/2026 conference with no further distribution. A GVR in line with + the SG's recommendation and the petitioners' own alternative ask needs no + extended consideration. Roughly a 30% chance it is relisted at least once + more, mainly if a Justice wants a GVR statement, as the SG suggested, or + a dissent from the GVR. +- **CVSG.** Already called and answered. No further CVSG. +- **Route.** Conditional on a grant, about 85% it is a summary GVR rather than + plenary review. The Court already GVR'd an analogous post-*B.P.J.* sports + case (*Petersen v. Doe*, June 30, 2026), and it GVR'd the Tenth Circuit's + *Fowler v. Stitt* in light of *Skrmetti*. Plenary review is the minority + path: the Court might want to settle the Turner-vs-*Virginia* question in + prisons on its own terms. +- **Question taken, if plenary.** QP 1 (Turner deference vs. heightened + scrutiny for sex-based prison policies) as written. QP 2 (the cross-gender + strip-search rule under *Bell*/*Florence*) is concededly not a split and + would be left behind or folded in. +- **If denied.** A dissent from denial is more likely than not. Justices Alito + and Thomas, possibly joined by Justice Gorsuch, would object to leaving the + Tenth Circuit's heightened-scrutiny holding in place. A GVR itself might + draw a short statement or a dissent (e.g., Justice Sotomayor or Justice + Jackson), but that is not the scored dissent-from-denial claim. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..0d07fa8d2d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +{ + "big_case_rationale": "Equal-protection standard for sex-based prison policies as applied to transgender inmates plus a cross-gender strip-search rule; nationally salient (23 States amici, SG participation) but post-Skrmetti/B.P.J. the doctrinal stakes are partly settled.", + "big_case_score": 0.55, + "case_id": "scotus/73278467", + "claims": [ + { + "claim_id": "disposition", + "probability": 0.84 + }, + { + "claim_id": "relist-increment", + "probability": 0.3 + }, + { + "claim_id": "cvsg-increment", + "probability": 0.01 + }, + { + "claim_id": "summary-disposition-route", + "probability": 0.85 + }, + { + "claim_id": "dissent-from-denial", + "probability": 0.6 + } + ], + "confidence": 0.7, + "context": { + "amicus_briefs": null, + "band": "high", + "cut_anchor_index": null, + "cut_kind": null, + "cutoff": null, + "cvsg_date": "2026-06-30", + "decided_before": null, + "distribution_count": 3, + "mode": "forward", + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null, + "salience_version": "sal-v4", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "signals_observable": true, + "snapshot_date": "2026-10-18", + "snapshot_provenance": "as-stored", + "snapshot_uptake": "read", + "term": 2025 + }, + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:30:59Z", + "engine": "claude-code", + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "granted": 1, + "input_snapshot": "2026-10-18.json", + "judgment": null, + "model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "predicted_disposition": "gvr", + "predicted_reasoning_doc": "predicted_reasoning.md", + "predictor_id": "claude-baseline", + "probability": 0.84, + "process_version": { + "algo": "sha256", + "digest": "sha256:605201bd8358473bcb8e7d59ee2d236d7be099756241333eec0f386b3400b734", + "label": "proc-v9", + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "stamped_at": "2026-10-18T14:31:42.528395Z" + }, + "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "semantic_claims": null, + "votes": [] +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d4a6aa8e9e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +# Reasoning — P(grant) 0.84 + +**Inputs read:** snapshot `2026-10-18.json` and `record/context.json` (forward; +band `high`, sal-v4; distribution_count 3; cvsg_date 2026-06-30; Term 2025). +Provisioned documents: the QPs, the petition, the BIO, the cert reply, the +SG's invited brief, and the appendix (truncated; skimmed only via the other +briefs' citations to it). + +**Anchor.** The statpack's sal-v4 band table, `high` column, bracketed +`reached` rate pooled over Terms 2017–2024 (strictly before Term 2025) comes +to about 314/898 ≈ **35%**. The marginal cuts agree on the order of magnitude: +the CVSG cut shows granted 29.3% + gvr 5.5% ≈ 35%, and relist 2 / 3+ show +about 37–41% any-grant. + +**Adjustment up, a large one.** The dominant signal is the SG's invited +brief. It recommends a **GVR in light of *B.P.J.* and *Skrmetti***, and the +petitioners asked for the same thing in the alternative (Pet. 5, 11, 15, 31; +reply section "hold for B.P.J."). The Court follows the SG's CVSG +recommendation in a large majority of cases, and a GVR is the low-cost +outcome the Court has used for this exact intervening-decision family: +*Fowler v. Stitt* (Tenth Circuit, after *Skrmetti*) and *Petersen v. Doe* +(after *B.P.J.*), both cited in the SG brief. The Tenth Circuit's holding +rests on heightened scrutiny for transgender status, a premise *Skrmetti* and +*B.P.J.* undercut. That meets the *Lawrence v. Chater* "reasonable +probability" bar comfortably. + +**Why not higher.** (1) On 6/29/2026, right after *B.P.J.*, the Court did not +simply GVR as it did in *Petersen*; it called for the SG's views instead. That +suggests some Justices saw a distinction, such as the prison/Turner framing or +QP 2's Fourth-Amendment-style strip-search issue, which *B.P.J.* does not +touch. The BIO argues that QP 2 and parts of the judgment are independent of +the scrutiny question. (2) The BIO also argues the case is interlocutory (the +district court is stayed pending cert) and that the lower courts can absorb +*B.P.J.* on their own, a plausible reason to deny. I put about 16% on denial. + +**Claims.** relist-increment 0.30: GVRs after a CVSG are usually entered at +the first conference after the SG brief, but a requested GVR statement or a +written dissent can cost a relist. cvsg-increment 0.01: vacuous, since a CVSG +is already on the docket. summary-disposition-route 0.85 (conditional on a +grant). dissent-from-denial 0.60 (conditional on a denial), because the +conservative Justices have written repeatedly in this area. + +**Big-case score 0.55:** a salient and contested area with 23 States as amici, +but the governing law is largely set by *Skrmetti*/*B.P.J.* + +**Caveats.** No CourtListener or corpus retrieval was performed. The forecast +rests on the provisioned record and the committed statpack. My knowledge of +*B.P.J.*'s and *Petersen*'s outcomes comes from the provisioned SG brief +(both predate the snapshot), not from any lookup of this case's disposition. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..16d5646579 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +No retrieval beyond the provisioned inputs. (I also read the committed `metrics/statpack.md` for base rates; no `fedcourts query`, MCP, or web lookups.) diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..7f1f40a25b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json @@ -0,0 +1,178 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "claude-baseline", + "calls": [ + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "6da6b9f182a45204", + "query": "cat .github/prompts/predict.md; ls -R data/cases/scotus/73278467/", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "be3170f0715c8c6c", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:29:53.037Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "94339993ada62cbb", + "query": "sed -n 1,400p /home/runner/.claude/projects/-home-runner-work-fedcourtsai-fedcourtsai/6a83c002-b914-4649-bd80-fb3f5087d7b2/tool-results/b8kw7bxkb.txt", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "c2b56d2b506423d8", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:29:54.904Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "6d745f870de64580", + "query": "sed -n 400,1200p /home/runner/.claude/projects/-home-runner-work-fedcourtsai-fedcourtsai/6a83c002-b914-4649-bd80-fb3f5087d7b2/tool-results/b8kw7bxkb.txt | grep -v \"^data/cases\" | head -700", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "3baab15ee70d013f", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:29:56.910Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "6cd78a252f045e6f", + "query": "F=/home/runner/.claude/projects/-home-runner-work-fedcourtsai-fedcourtsai/6a83c002-b914-4649-bd80-fb3f5087d7b2/tool-results/b8kw7bxkb.txt; grep -n \"^#\" $F; wc -l $F", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "1c770e57bba7f569", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:29:59.085Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "07d24f76a8a0c7cb", + "query": "F=/home/runner/.claude/projects/-home-runner-work-fedcourtsai-fedcourtsai/6a83c002-b914-4649-bd80-fb3f5087d7b2/tool-results/b8kw7bxkb.txt; sed -n 739,1083p $F", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "b23e3ea9d7dbdf6a", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:02.359Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "ad6f518b47c3bda6", + "query": "cd data/cases/scotus/73278467; cat events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml record/context.json record/documents/documents.json; python3 -c \"\nimport json;d=json.load(open('record/snapshots/2026-10-18.json'));print(list(d.keys()))\nprint(json.dumps({k:v for k,v in d.items() if k not in('docket_entries','entries')},indent=1)[:3000])\"", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "ef4f1a417d4b7ab1", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:05.902Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "88a45061b4341fdd", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/data/cases/scotus/73278467; python3 -c \"\nimport json;d=json.load(open('record/snapshots/2026-10-18.json'))\nfor e in d['ProceedingsandOrder']: print(e['Date'],'|',e['Text'][:300])\"; cat record/documents/questions-presented.txt", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "1411093f1ebd394e", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:08.462Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "6bf75011b16df146", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/data/cases/scotus/73278467/record/documents; wc -c *.txt; grep -n -i -E \"should be (granted|denied)|vacate|remand|hold|Hecox|B\\.P\\.J|Skrmetti|conclusion\" sg-invited-brief.txt | head -60", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "0a3eba8f07410bfd", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:11.788Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "1fa1a796759e47b2", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/data/cases/scotus/73278467/record/documents; sed -n 400,470p sg-invited-brief.txt; grep -n -i -E \"plenary|alternativ|footnote|^ *2 \" sg-invited-brief.txt | head; tail -60 sg-invited-brief.txt", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "356dc6d17db0b836", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:14.257Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "a3ae3cb3f27dbbd3", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; grep -n -i -E \"GVR|vacat|Skrmetti|B\\.P\\.J|Hecox|hold\" data/cases/scotus/73278467/record/documents/brief-in-opposition.txt | head -30; grep -n -i -E \"GVR|hold|Hecox|B\\.P\\.J\" data/cases/scotus/73278467/record/documents/cert-reply.txt | head -20; grep -n \"^#\" metrics/statpack.md | head -60", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "cd73831f99957762", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:19.066Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "05c5405d74641878", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; sed -n 100,136p metrics/statpack.md; sed -n 187,204p metrics/statpack.md; sed -n 1030,1075p data/cases/scotus/73278467/record/documents/brief-in-opposition.txt", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "89dbec8f59ede119", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:20.766Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "47ca1ad060032041", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; python3 -c \"\nimport json\nfor f in ['prediction','agent_tooling']:\n s=json.load(open(f'schemas/{f}.schema.json'));print(f,s.get('required'),list(s['properties']))\"; ls data/cases/scotus/*/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/*/prediction.json | head -1 | xargs cat", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "ef412ceb38b9b334", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:30:29.527Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "dac8dbdbda1f269c", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; D=data/cases/scotus/73278467/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z; mkdir -p $D; NOW=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)\ncat > $D/prediction.json < $D/prediction.json < /home/runner/.gemini/tmp/fedcourtsai/calc_base_rate.py\nterms = [\n (1297, 3.9), # 2025\n (1271, 5.7), # 2024\n (1312, 5.9), # 2023\n (1192, 5.8), # 2022\n (1500, 5.6), # 2021\n (1739, 4.5), # 2020\n (1399, 4.6), # 2019\n (1524, 4.6), # 2018\n (1643, 4.7), # 2017\n]\n\ntotal_n = sum(n for n, r in terms)\ntotal_grants = sum(n * r / 100 for n, r in terms)\npooled_rate = total_grants / total_n * 100\n\nprint(f\"Total n: {total_n}\")\nprint(f\"Pooled rate: {pooled_rate:.2f}%\")\nE", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:23.096Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "9b6e12bf09e5666c", + "query": "grep -A 20 \"Cert petitions by CVSG status (paid scored segment)\" metrics/statpack.md", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:28.743Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "dee46b2068a076f4", + "query": "grep -A 20 \"Cert petitions by relist count (paid scored segment)\" metrics/statpack.md", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:28.743Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "49612790bd9ed96e", + "query": "grep -i -C 2 \"split\" data/cases/scotus/9026000115/record/documents/petition.txt | head -n 20", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:42.088Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "73bf9fcb1b364398", + "query": "grep -i -C 2 \"conflict\" data/cases/scotus/9026000115/record/documents/petition.txt | head -n 20", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:44.755Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "2ac95fa31eeb67ff", + "query": "grep -i -C 2 \"Groff\" data/cases/scotus/9026000115/record/documents/petition.txt | head -n 20", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:47.465Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "80cbb0066b6ab942", + "query": "uv run fedcourts query --court scotus --era 2020s \"COVID-19 vaccine mandate religious\" --limit 5", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:53.527Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "77112c2f30ed8fb8", + "query": "uv run fedcourts query --court scotus --era 2020s --limit 5", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:01.107Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "b755a97663acc4e3", + "query": "cat << 'EOF' > /home/runner/.gemini/tmp/fedcourtsai/prediction.json\n{\n \"case_id\": \"scotus/9026000115\",\n \"event_id\": \"evt-petition-disposition\",\n \"predictor_id\": \"gemini-baseline\",\n \"run_id\": \"20261018T142134Z\",\n \"engine\": \"gemini\",\n \"model\": \"gemini-3.1-pro-preview\",\n \"created_at\": \"2026-10-18T14:21:34Z\",\n \"input_snapshot\": \"2026-10-18.json\",\n \"granted\": 0,\n \"probability\": 0.005,\n \"predicted_disposition\": \"denied\",\n \"big_case_score\": 0.1,\n \"big_case_rationale\": \"A routine Title VII ", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:49.689Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "3dcee97b93aff7ee", + "query": "cat << 'EOF' > data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md\nP(grant) is set at 0.005. The statpack shows that a petition in the `baseline` band has a pooled 'reached' grant rate of 5.0% across the preceding terms. However, I have adjusted this probability down significantly. \n\nThe petition involves a fact-bound Title VII religious accommodation claim regarding the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, and the questions presented do no", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:00.523Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "9a193a19df26f08b", + "query": "cat << 'EOF' > data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md\nP(grant) is set at 0.005. The statpack shows that a petition in the baseline band has a pooled 'reached' grant rate of 5.0% across the preceding terms. However, I have adjusted this probability down significantly. \n\nThe petition involves a fact-bound Title VII religious accommodation claim regarding the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, and the questions presented do not ", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:50.726Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "7e2ca05c8e2bf1f0", + "query": "{\"strategic_intent\": \"All outputs generated and validated. Finishing the task.\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:53.334Z", + "tool": "update_topic" + } + ], + "case_id": "scotus/9026000115", + "engine": "gemini", + "mcp_servers": [ + "courtlistener=courtlistener-api-client[mcp]==1.1.0" + ], + "mcp_tools": [ + "courtlistener.analyze_citations", + "courtlistener.call_endpoint", + "courtlistener.create_search_alert", + "courtlistener.delete_search_alert", + "courtlistener.extract_citations", + "courtlistener.get_choices", + "courtlistener.get_counts", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_item", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_schema", + "courtlistener.get_more_results", + "courtlistener.read_document", + "courtlistener.resume_citation_analysis", + "courtlistener.search", + "courtlistener.search_document", + "courtlistener.subscribe_to_docket_alert", + "courtlistener.unsubscribe_from_docket_alert" + ], + "mode": "forward", + "result_capture_coverage": 0.0, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "self_provisioned_fetches": 0, + "throttled_calls": null +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..0bd79d80dc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "case_id": "scotus/9026000115", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "role": "predictor", + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "used_corpus_query": true, + "used_base_rates": true, + "tools_used": ["read_file", "run_shell_command", "list_directory"], + "helpful": ["statpack base rates"], + "notes": "fedcourts query does not support free text search." +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..3f7717e207 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000115/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0, + "cache_read_input_tokens": 1000676, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000115", + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:21:34Z", + "engine": "gemini", + "engine_version": "0.49.0", + "engine_version_discrepancy": null, + "estimated_cost_usd": 0.4460412, + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "input_tokens": 79699, + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "output_tokens": 7209, + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "post_run_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-115", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:29:06.509536Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "pre_mint_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-115", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:25:02.332564Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0" +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..f479bea0d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +case_id: scotus/9026000119 +decision_target: disposition +description: null +docket_entry_id: null +event_id: evt-petition-disposition +kind: petition +moment: distribution +opened_at: '2026-07-27' +resolved: false +schema_version: '1.0' +stage: cert +title: Guam v. Richard Y. Ybanez, et al. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e3fa69ef4e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# Forecast — Guam v. Ybanez, No. 26-119 + +**Disposition: denied** at the conference of November 6, 2026 (the first distribution). + +- **Relists.** The docket shows one distribution (for the 11/6/2026 conference) and no relist. I expect no further distribution. The more likely deviation from a clean denial is not a relist. It is a call for a response: only respondent Chargualaf has filed a waiver, and the Court sometimes asks for a response before it would act on a government petitioner's request. Even if the Court does call for a response, I expect a denial after it. +- **CVSG.** None. This is a territorial criminal prosecution in which the government of Guam is itself the petitioner. No federal regulatory interest calls for the Solicitor General's views. +- **Question presented, if granted.** The single QP asks whether federal constitutional limits on disqualifying an entire prosecuting office bind territorial courts. A grant would almost certainly be reformulated, most likely narrowed to whether the Supreme Court of Guam's disqualification and dismissal of the People's appeal without notice violated due process as applied to Guam through the Organic Act (48 U.S.C. § 1421b(u)). +- **Summary route.** If the Court grants at all, a summary disposition (a per curiam vacatur on a notice or due-process ground) is a real share of that small grant mass. No intervening decision supports a GVR. +- **Separate writing.** I expect none on denial. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..6928e42b1d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +{ + "big_case_rationale": "Territorial prosecutorial-disqualification dispute of real local political salience in Guam, but narrow, fact-bound, and of little national doctrinal reach.", + "big_case_score": 0.15, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "claims": [ + { + "claim_id": "disposition", + "probability": 0.04 + }, + { + "claim_id": "relist-increment", + "probability": 0.12 + }, + { + "claim_id": "cvsg-increment", + "probability": 0.02 + }, + { + "claim_id": "summary-disposition-route", + "probability": 0.35 + }, + { + "claim_id": "dissent-from-denial", + "probability": 0.03 + } + ], + "confidence": 0.85, + "context": { + "amicus_briefs": null, + "band": "state", + "cut_anchor_index": null, + "cut_kind": null, + "cutoff": null, + "cvsg_date": null, + "decided_before": null, + "distribution_count": 1, + "mode": "forward", + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null, + "salience_version": "sal-v4", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "signals_observable": true, + "snapshot_date": "2026-10-18", + "snapshot_provenance": "as-stored", + "snapshot_uptake": "read", + "term": 2026 + }, + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:26:17Z", + "engine": "claude-code", + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "granted": 0, + "input_snapshot": "2026-10-18.json", + "judgment": null, + "model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "predicted_disposition": "denied", + "predicted_reasoning_doc": "predicted_reasoning.md", + "predictor_id": "claude-baseline", + "probability": 0.04, + "process_version": { + "algo": "sha256", + "digest": "sha256:605201bd8358473bcb8e7d59ee2d236d7be099756241333eec0f386b3400b734", + "label": "proc-v9", + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "stamped_at": "2026-10-18T14:27:02.745386Z" + }, + "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "semantic_claims": null, + "votes": [] +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..57645545d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +# Rationale — P(grant) = 0.04 + +**Inputs.** I read snapshot `2026-10-18.json`, `context.json` (forward mode, band `state` under sal-v4, distribution_count 1, no CVSG), `questions-presented.txt`, and the front matter, reasons-for-granting outline, and opening sections of `petition.txt` (98 pages, not truncated). No brief in opposition exists: respondent Chargualaf waived, and the docket shows no filings from the other four respondents. + +**Anchor.** Band `state`: I pooled the bracketed `reached` rate over Terms 2017–2025 in the sal-v4 segment table, about 99 grants out of about 421, or roughly 23–24%. The 2026 row (n=1) is too thin to use. That class floor is inflated by the kinds of petitions states usually win on: AEDPA habeas summary reversals, and Fourth Amendment or Confrontation Clause splits argued by experienced state solicitor-general offices. This petition looks like none of those. + +**Adjustments, all downward.** +- **The QP is poorly framed.** It asks the Court to "extend" an unspecified body of "settled" federal jurisprudence on disqualifying a whole prosecuting office to territorial courts. No circuit or state split is identified. The authorities cited are a few district-court and circuit cases on disqualification, and none is a conflicting high-court decision. +- **The underlying dispute is local and fact-bound.** The Superior Court of Guam disqualified the entire Office of the Attorney General in a public-corruption prosecution, and the Supreme Court of Guam then disqualified the Office on appeal and dismissed the appeal. That is a local institutional fight with obvious political overtones, and the petition leans on Organic Act and "the People" arguments. +- **There are vehicle problems.** The orders below are unreported and rest at least in part on Guam-law ethics and disqualification grounds. That raises questions about whether the federal issue was properly presented and whether an adequate local ground supports the judgment. +- **The Court has shown no interest.** No response was requested before the first conference. + +What keeps me off 1–2% is that a government petitioner losing an entire prosecution by disqualification without notice is the sort of thing that can draw a call for a response, and very occasionally a summary vacatur. **0.04.** + +**Claims.** +- **relist-increment 0.12:** mostly the chance that the Court calls for a response and the case is redistributed. +- **cvsg-increment 0.02.** +- **summary-disposition-route 0.35** (conditional on a grant): a grant here would more plausibly be a summary vacatur than plenary review. +- **dissent-from-denial 0.03.** + +**Uncertainty.** I did not read the petition's appendices (the Guam orders) in full, so my view of whether a local-law ground supports the judgment is inferred. The docket links a related case, 26-264 ("Vide"). A CourtListener search returned nothing for it, so I don't know its content. It may be a parallel Guam petition, for example the San Agustin matter (CRA24-023) cited in the petition. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d3e2ef3a83 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# Retrieval + +- CourtListener MCP `search` (type=d, court=scotus, docket_number=26-264), looking for the related "Vide" docket: 0 results. +- Committed `metrics/statpack.md` (base rates; not a corpus query). +- No `fedcourts query` calls. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..b4154d222e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json @@ -0,0 +1,156 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "claude-baseline", + "calls": [ + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "d2a0788910679443", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; cat .github/prompts/predict.md; ls -R data/cases/scotus/9026000119/", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "aa7def466647b728", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:28.135Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "43ab6ad1afa73854", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; cat .github/prompts/predict.md | head -c 75000", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "57d2fe4cb78147a1", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:29.514Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "533d17b7069a2618", + "query": "{\"file_path\": \"/home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/.github/prompts/predict.md\"}", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "ea89d1ad38dd0a77", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:31.401Z", + "tool": "Read" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "1b5690d7dd92caba", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; ls -laR data/cases/scotus/9026000119/", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "52fcfdcd170aa72b", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:31.854Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "3b1799d056feee13", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/data/cases/scotus/9026000119; cat events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml; echo; cat record/context.json; echo; cat record/snapshots/2026-10-18.json; echo; cat record/documents/documents.json record/documents/questions-presented.txt", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "4e3ef5319a306427", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:33.897Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "c5ca737a4623f4ee", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai/data/cases/scotus/9026000119; sed -n 1,400p record/documents/petition.txt | cut -c1-200 | grep -v '^\\s*$' | head -300", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "ae881243e9f02f02", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:36.251Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "cdbe622c8440702d", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; grep -n \"^#\" metrics/statpack.md | head -60", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "0c18405c57f0372a", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:41.439Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "3d59e9aa2a95a6cd", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; sed -n 57,67p metrics/statpack.md; sed -n 100,204p metrics/statpack.md", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "9ea9e39d1cc61812", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:42.951Z", + "tool": "Bash" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "5030af0686f8387f", + "query": "select:mcp__courtlistener__search", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "0032415fbb336547", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:48.232Z", + "tool": "ToolSearch" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "d2f540c0f23845a2", + "query": "{\"court\": \"scotus\", \"docket_number\": \"26-264\", \"fields\": [\"caseName\", \"docketNumber\", \"dateFiled\"], \"num_results\": 3, \"type\": \"d\"}", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "862a40c5efb2b96e", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:50.952Z", + "tool": "mcp__courtlistener__search" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "376d9208606d1266", + "query": "cd /home/runner/work/fedcourtsai/fedcourtsai; D=data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/claude-baseline/20261018T142134Z; mkdir -p $D; NOW=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)\ncat > $D/prediction.json <= 2017 and .term <= 2025) | {term,salience_version,state:.segments.state}]' metrics/statpack.json\", \"max_output_tokens\": 3500}", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "85c8d173807fc30e", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:48.366Z", + "tool": "exec_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "641735008ad7fc48", + "query": "{\"cmd\": \"jq '[.terms[] | select(.term >= 2017 and .term <= 2025) | .term as $term | .salience_version as $version | .segments[] | select(.band == \\\"state\\\") | {term:$term,salience_version:$version,rate:.prefix_est_grant_rate,weight:.prefix_weighted_resolved,numerator:(.prefix_est_grant_rate * .prefix_weighted_resolved)}] | . as $rows | {rows:$rows,numerator:([$rows[].numerator]|add),denominator:([$rows[].weight]|add),percent:(([$rows[].numerator]|add)/([$rows[].weight]|add)*100)}' metrics/statpa", + "result_capture": "captured", + "result_digest": "ec800c43f38cd1e1", + "result_status": "ok", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:54.960Z", + "tool": "exec_command" + } + ], + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "engine": "codex", + "mcp_servers": [ + "courtlistener=courtlistener-api-client[mcp]==1.1.0" + ], + "mcp_tools": [ + "courtlistener.analyze_citations", + "courtlistener.call_endpoint", + "courtlistener.create_search_alert", + "courtlistener.delete_search_alert", + "courtlistener.extract_citations", + "courtlistener.get_choices", + "courtlistener.get_counts", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_item", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_schema", + "courtlistener.get_more_results", + "courtlistener.read_document", + "courtlistener.resume_citation_analysis", + "courtlistener.search", + "courtlistener.search_document", + "courtlistener.subscribe_to_docket_alert", + "courtlistener.unsubscribe_from_docket_alert" + ], + "mode": "forward", + "result_capture_coverage": 1.0, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "self_provisioned_fetches": 0, + "throttled_calls": null +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c7787ccb42 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "codex-baseline", + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "gaps": [ + "No opposition text was provisioned.", + "General official-rule web attempts returned no usable content." + ], + "helpful": [ + "Petition appendices exposed factual findings and procedural obstacles absent from the QP.", + "Matching sal-v4 risk-set denominators allowed exact prior-Term pooling.", + "CourtListener provided targeted context from an older precedent without seeking the target outcome." + ], + "notes": "The default uv cache was unwritable; a temporary cache and the existing environment allowed the path command to run. No live corpus lookup was needed. Increment probabilities are subjective; terminal signal buckets are not forward hazards.", + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "tools_used": [ + "provisioned record reads", + "committed statpack", + "fedcourts paths", + "CourtListener search", + "CourtListener search_document", + "web retrieval attempts", + "read-only base-rate review" + ], + "used_base_rates": true, + "used_corpus_query": false +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..903d943013 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "codex-baseline", + "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0, + "cache_read_input_tokens": 219996, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:21:34Z", + "engine": "codex", + "engine_version": "0.144.1", + "engine_version_discrepancy": null, + "estimated_cost_usd": 0.669276, + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "input_tokens": 39298, + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "output_tokens": 1126, + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "post_run_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-119", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:30:33.628093Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "pre_mint_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-119", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:25:02.292537Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0" +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5189ff70a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# Predicted Disposition + +The Court will deny the petition for certiorari. + +## Procedural Forecast +The docket currently records a single distribution (distributed for the November 6, 2026 conference). The Court is highly unlikely to relist the petition further or call for a response from the respondent. Given the local nature of the dispute and the weakness of the federal claim, a CVSG (Call for the Views of the Solicitor General) will not be issued. The petition will be denied outright at its first conference. + +## Question Presented and Doctrinal Ground (If Granted) +If the Court were to grant the petition, it would likely take the sole question presented as formulated: whether federal constitutional rules disfavoring the summary disqualification of an entire public prosecution office should be extended to state and territorial courts. However, the Court would likely rule that the Fourteenth Amendment does not confer such structural protections upon state or territorial subdivisions against their own judiciaries, or it would dismiss the writ as improvidently granted (DIG) for lack of a substantial federal question. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..90a187d487 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +{ + "big_case_rationale": "Involves territorial separation of powers and prosecutor disqualification, but lacks national importance or a strong federal question.", + "big_case_score": 0.1, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "claims": [ + { + "claim_id": "disposition", + "probability": 0.01 + }, + { + "claim_id": "relist-increment", + "probability": 0.05 + }, + { + "claim_id": "cvsg-increment", + "probability": 0.02 + }, + { + "claim_id": "summary-disposition-route", + "probability": 0.05 + }, + { + "claim_id": "dissent-from-denial", + "probability": 0.05 + } + ], + "confidence": null, + "context": { + "amicus_briefs": null, + "band": "state", + "cut_anchor_index": null, + "cut_kind": null, + "cutoff": null, + "cvsg_date": null, + "decided_before": null, + "distribution_count": 1, + "mode": "forward", + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null, + "salience_version": "sal-v4", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "signals_observable": true, + "snapshot_date": "2026-10-18", + "snapshot_provenance": "as-stored", + "snapshot_uptake": "read", + "term": 2026 + }, + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:25:00Z", + "engine": "gemini", + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "granted": 0, + "input_snapshot": "2026-10-18.json", + "judgment": null, + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "predicted_disposition": "denied", + "predicted_reasoning_doc": "predicted_reasoning.md", + "predictor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "probability": 0.01, + "process_version": { + "algo": "sha256", + "digest": "sha256:a9033e56819e775e561b802dec24bae437c17c751e5a7f5fa4b3eeb31383951f", + "label": "proc-v9", + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "stamped_at": "2026-10-18T14:28:30.531173Z" + }, + "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "semantic_claims": null, + "votes": [] +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..af2c58ba25 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +# Reasoning + +This is a forward-mode prediction for `Guam v. Richard Y. Ybanez, et al.`, a petition for certiorari at the distribution moment. + +## Base Rates and Adjustments +The petition falls into the `state` salience band under `sal-v4`. According to the `metrics/statpack.md` per-Term base rates for the `state` band (pooling Terms up to OT 2025), the bracketed `reached` grant rate is approximately 23.5% ($99 / 421$). However, several case-specific factors strongly downward-adjust this baseline: + +1. **Weak Federal Question:** The petitioner (the People of Guam, represented by the Attorney General) asks whether federal constitutional rules disfavoring vicarious disqualification of a prosecutor's office apply to states and territories. However, state and territorial governments generally do not have Fourteenth Amendment due process rights against their own courts, making this primarily an internal separation-of-powers issue disguised as a federal question. +2. **Lack of National Importance:** The dispute involves an idiosyncratic disqualification order by the Supreme Court of Guam. It lacks the broader national implications or clear circuit split necessary to command Supreme Court review. +3. **Absence of Amici and BIO Waiver:** There are no amicus briefs supporting the petition, and the respondent has explicitly waived the right to respond. A waiver of response typically signals that the respondent views the petition as exceedingly weak and not worth defending unless the Court requests a response. + +## Conclusion +Given the narrow, localized nature of the dispute, the structural weakness of the federal constitutional claim, and the lack of external interest (no amici, waived response), a grant is highly improbable. I estimate the likelihood of a grant at 1%. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..3ffb1a4400 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# Retrieval Log + +- Searched `metrics/statpack.md` for base rates regarding the `state` salience band up to Term 2025. +- Searched CourtListener via the MCP server (`mcp_courtlistener_search`) for `"entire office" AND "disqualification" AND "prosecutor"` to assess whether there is a deep, recognized circuit split on the disqualification of entire prosecutor's offices (yielding some state/local cases but no commanding federal constitutional mandate). +- Failed to run `fedcourts query` due to an incorrect free-text search argument. diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..df942ca594 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json @@ -0,0 +1,442 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "calls": [ + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "ac46b9ea901631cc", + "query": "{\"strategic_intent\": \"Read project guidelines and instructions to perform a prediction for the specified cell.\", \"title\": \"Reading Guidelines\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:23.555Z", + "tool": "update_topic" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "69e5bc9dc29dc1b1", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 100, \"file_path\": \"AGENTS.md\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:28.963Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "f16dbc32156dfcab", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 100, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:28.963Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "4688105feb59afda", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 200, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 101}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:36.884Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "47a8056c4484cba6", + "query": "{\"dir_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:36.885Z", + "tool": "list_directory" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "9986e587173b2ca8", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 300, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 201}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:43.620Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "a780bbb34a09208f", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 400, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 301}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:46.528Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "981b774b9cd17489", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 50, \"file_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/event.yaml\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:46.528Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "980ea58c1225ed5a", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 500, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 401}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:49.182Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "928c7c375aba7f51", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 600, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 501}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:25:57.383Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "79e9612ce91dd952", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 700, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 601}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:00.489Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "2d28d255694ff93c", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 800, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 701}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:06.916Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "0fcdfe679376e803", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 900, \"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\", \"start_line\": 801}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:10.439Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "4ee0cc80c088794f", + "query": "{\"dir_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/snapshots\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:14.229Z", + "tool": "list_directory" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "f84a0815286a0125", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 100, \"file_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/snapshots/2026-10-18.json\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:18.507Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "d97d8e6b38639f32", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 100, \"file_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/context.json\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:18.507Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "d17b38815c7d3cbe", + "query": "{\"dir_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/documents\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:22.169Z", + "tool": "list_directory" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "ee75d22defbb4b48", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 100, \"file_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/documents/questions-presented.txt\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:28.034Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "8c586eed4de1c5e3", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 150, \"file_path\": \"metrics/statpack.md\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:32.215Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "19e1ecfd9d32ae60", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 259, \"file_path\": \"metrics/statpack.md\", \"start_line\": 151}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:43.573Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "2dd131066561b0aa", + "query": "uv run fedcourts query \"disqualification of entire attorney general office\" --court scotus --era 2020s", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:53.066Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "af66acab2442d88f", + "query": "\"entire office\" AND \"disqualification\" AND \"prosecutor\"", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:26:59.425Z", + "tool": "mcp_courtlistener_search" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "4ebc32d48c30f8dd", + "query": "grep -B 5 -A 25 \"SUMMARY OF \" data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/documents/petition.txt", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:04.514Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "c37cb63ed9d86615", + "query": "grep -i -B 2 -A 30 \"SUMMARY OF ARGUMENT\" data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/documents/petition.txt", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:07.635Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "42149f9c213fcca3", + "query": "{\"end_line\": 200, \"file_path\": \"data/cases/scotus/9026000119/record/documents/petition.txt\", \"start_line\": 1}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:10.749Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "f6ad0b0c1a485125", + "query": "cat .github/prompts/predict.md | grep -A 20 \"predicted_reasoning.md\"", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:18.599Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "4c40937fc2228539", + "query": "mkdir -p data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:21.456Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "8ecba0f875b776a1", + "query": "{\"content\": \"{\\n \\\"case_id\\\": \\\"scotus/9026000119\\\",\\n \\\"event_id\\\": \\\"evt-petition-disposition\\\",\\n \\\"predictor_id\\\": \\\"gemini-baseline\\\",\\n \\\"run_id\\\": \\\"20261018T142134Z\\\",\\n \\\"engine\\\": \\\"gemini\\\",\\n \\\"model\\\": \\\"gemini-3.1-pro-preview\\\",\\n \\\"created_at\\\": \\\"2026-10-18T14:25:00Z\\\",\\n \\\"input_snapshot\\\": \\\"2026-10-18.json\\\",\\n \\\"granted\\\": 0,\\n \\\"probability\\\": 0.01,\\n \\\"predicted_disposition\\\": \\\"denied\\\",\\n \\\"big_case_score\\\": 0.1,\\n \\\"big_case_rationale\\\": \\\"Involves territori", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:27.871Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "6eae86b635587b22", + "query": "{\"content\": \"# Reasoning\\n\\nThis is a forward-mode prediction for `Guam v. Richard Y. Ybanez, et al.`, a petition for certiorari at the distribution moment.\\n\\n## Base Rates and Adjustments\\nThe petition falls into the `state` salience band under `sal-v4`. According to the `metrics/statpack.md` per-Term base rates for the `state` band (pooling Terms up to OT 2025), the bracketed `reached` grant rate is approximately 23.5% ($99 / 421$). However, several case-specific factors strongly downward-adj", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:35.603Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "450912858a22532e", + "query": "{\"content\": \"# Predicted Disposition\\n\\nThe Court will deny the petition for certiorari.\\n\\n## Procedural Forecast\\nThe docket currently records a single distribution (distributed for the November 6, 2026 conference). The Court is highly unlikely to relist the petition further or call for a response from the respondent. Given the local nature of the dispute and the weakness of the federal claim, a CVSG (Call for the Views of the Solicitor General) will not be issued. The petition will be denied ", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:44.269Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "9bea52ffc8dd2c1a", + "query": "{\"content\": \"# Retrieval Log\\n\\n- Searched `metrics/statpack.md` for base rates regarding the `state` salience band up to Term 2025.\\n- Searched CourtListener via the MCP server (`mcp_courtlistener_search`) for `\\\"entire office\\\" AND \\\"disqualification\\\" AND \\\"prosecutor\\\"` to assess whether there is a deep, recognized circuit split on the disqualification of entire prosecutor's offices (yielding some state/local cases but no commanding federal constitutional mandate).\\n- Failed to run `fedcourt", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:50.116Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "0fe36bdba207c02a", + "query": "cat schemas/tool_usage.schema.json", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:53.746Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "87c861fbac226c77", + "query": "cat .github/prompts/predict.md | grep -A 5 -B 5 \"tooling.json\"", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:27:58.878Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "01ba073fb170582d", + "query": "cat schemas/agent_tooling.schema.json", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:04.801Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "2d2ad3047236cc5e", + "query": "{\"content\": \"{\\n \\\"case_id\\\": \\\"scotus/9026000119\\\",\\n \\\"run_id\\\": \\\"20261018T142134Z\\\",\\n \\\"role\\\": \\\"predictor\\\",\\n \\\"actor_id\\\": \\\"gemini-baseline\\\",\\n \\\"used_corpus_query\\\": true,\\n \\\"used_base_rates\\\": true,\\n \\\"tools_used\\\": [\\n \\\"run_shell_command (to run fedcourts query)\\\",\\n \\\"mcp_courtlistener_search\\\",\\n \\\"read_file (to read statpack.md and context.json)\\\"\\n ],\\n \\\"helpful\\\": [\\n \\\"CourtListener search (MCP) to verify scope of the legal issue\\\",\\n \\\"metrics/sta", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:08.818Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "f8aeb6d4fb7c7bdb", + "query": "cat schemas/prediction.schema.json", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:15.561Z", + "tool": "run_shell_command" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "8341ae97ea137a14", + "query": "{\"strategic_intent\": \"Finished cell prediction, no further actions needed.\", \"title\": \"Finished\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:19.710Z", + "tool": "update_topic" + } + ], + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "engine": "gemini", + "mcp_servers": [ + "courtlistener=courtlistener-api-client[mcp]==1.1.0" + ], + "mcp_tools": [ + "courtlistener.analyze_citations", + "courtlistener.call_endpoint", + "courtlistener.create_search_alert", + "courtlistener.delete_search_alert", + "courtlistener.extract_citations", + "courtlistener.get_choices", + "courtlistener.get_counts", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_item", + "courtlistener.get_endpoint_schema", + "courtlistener.get_more_results", + "courtlistener.read_document", + "courtlistener.resume_citation_analysis", + "courtlistener.search", + "courtlistener.search_document", + "courtlistener.subscribe_to_docket_alert", + "courtlistener.unsubscribe_from_docket_alert" + ], + "mode": "forward", + "result_capture_coverage": 0.0, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "self_provisioned_fetches": 0, + "throttled_calls": null +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..04197dbd04 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/tooling.json @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +{ + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "role": "predictor", + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "used_corpus_query": true, + "used_base_rates": true, + "tools_used": [ + "run_shell_command (to run fedcourts query)", + "mcp_courtlistener_search", + "read_file (to read statpack.md and context.json)" + ], + "helpful": [ + "CourtListener search (MCP) to verify scope of the legal issue", + "metrics/statpack.md provided a highly reliable anchor for the state salience band" + ], + "gaps": [ + "fedcourts query CLI parsing failed when passed an unexpected free-text search argument" + ], + "schema_version": "1.0" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..2b59c60bdb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000119/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/usage.json @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0, + "cache_read_input_tokens": 1642682, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000119", + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:21:34Z", + "engine": "gemini", + "engine_version": "0.49.0", + "engine_version_discrepancy": null, + "estimated_cost_usd": 0.7502884000000001, + "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition", + "input_tokens": 159906, + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "output_tokens": 8495, + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "post_run_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-119", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:28:26.789633Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "pre_mint_poll": { + "docket_number": "26-119", + "polled_at": "2026-10-18T14:24:59.817546Z", + "reason": null, + "signals": { + "cvsg": { + "entry_date": null, + "present": false + }, + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null + }, + "state": "open" + }, + "role": "predictor", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0" +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..ae9b9a92f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/predicted_reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +The petition is currently at the arrival moment and has not yet been distributed for conference. I expect the petition to be distributed once and denied without any relists. + +The Court will likely deny the petition because it is brought by a pro se petitioner against a private corporation and appears to raise fact-bound or idiosyncratic claims rather than a genuine circuit split or important question of federal law. + +No CVSG is expected, as the case does not implicate the interests of the federal government. A summary disposition route (such as a GVR) is highly unlikely because there is no indication of an intervening change in law. Should the Court deny the petition, expect no separate writing (dissent from denial or statement respecting the denial) from any Justice. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..8a3c7f6469 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/prediction.json @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +{ + "big_case_rationale": "A pro se petition by a private individual against a large corporation, raising no apparent issues of national importance.", + "big_case_score": 0.01, + "case_id": "scotus/9026000517", + "claims": [ + { + "claim_id": "disposition", + "probability": 0.001 + }, + { + "claim_id": "relist-increment", + "probability": 0.01 + }, + { + "claim_id": "cvsg-increment", + "probability": 0.001 + }, + { + "claim_id": "summary-disposition-route", + "probability": 0.01 + }, + { + "claim_id": "dissent-from-denial", + "probability": 0.01 + } + ], + "confidence": null, + "context": { + "amicus_briefs": null, + "band": "baseline", + "cut_anchor_index": null, + "cut_kind": "date", + "cutoff": "2026-10-17", + "cvsg_date": null, + "decided_before": null, + "distribution_count": 0, + "mode": "forward", + "referred_to_court": null, + "response_requested": null, + "salience_version": "sal-v4", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "signals_observable": true, + "snapshot_date": "2026-10-17", + "snapshot_provenance": "truncated", + "snapshot_uptake": "read", + "term": 2026 + }, + "created_at": "2026-10-18T14:21:34Z", + "engine": "gemini", + "event_id": "evt-petition-arrival-disposition", + "granted": 0, + "input_snapshot": "2026-10-17.json", + "judgment": null, + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "predicted_disposition": "denied", + "predicted_reasoning_doc": "predicted_reasoning.md", + "predictor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "probability": 0.001, + "process_version": { + "algo": "sha256", + "digest": "sha256:a9033e56819e775e561b802dec24bae437c17c751e5a7f5fa4b3eeb31383951f", + "label": "proc-v9", + "pipeline_sha": "184d3e0aaf111cd579830f0bd5562234e0848d2c", + "stamped_at": "2026-10-18T14:33:54.746646Z" + }, + "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md", + "run_id": "20261018T142134Z", + "schema_version": "1.0", + "semantic_claims": null, + "votes": [] +} diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..73214db67f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/reasoning.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +P(grant) = 0.001. + +The case is a paid petition filed by a private individual, Alejandro Evaristo Perez, acting pro se (his name appears as both party and attorney, and his address is withheld) against Disney Corporation and others. It arises from the Fifth Circuit. + +Although this is a "Paid" petition, its nature is typical of IFP petitions (pro se litigant, suing a massive corporation, highly likely to be fact-bound or legally frivolous). Since the petitioner is a private party and the petition is currently at the arrival moment with a `baseline` salience band, I anchored my prediction on the cert-stage bracketed `reached` base rate for the `baseline` band across strictly prior Terms (which ranges from ~4% to 5.9% over recent terms). + +However, I adjusted sharply downward from that 5% base rate. The base rate includes cases represented by experienced counsel that merely lacked early salience markers. A pro se petition against a media conglomerate (often copyright or frivolous tort claims, like the previous S.D. Texas case found in CourtListener `Perez v. Disney Corporation` 4:21-cv-00765) virtually never presents the kind of clean circuit split or substantial question of federal law that the Supreme Court grants. No documents were provisioned, so I relied entirely on the snapshot docket entries and party metadata, which plainly show the pro se nature of the petition. + +Given these vehicle defects and the absence of any indication of broader importance, the probability of a grant, relist, CVSG, or dissent from denial is near zero. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..578652164c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `docket_number` "26-517" in `scotus` (0 results) +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `docket_number` "24-20354" in `ca5` (0 results) +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `case_name` "Alejandro Evaristo Perez" in `d` (1 result: C.D. Cal. case from 2021) +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `case_name` "Alejandro Evaristo Perez" in `o` (0 results) +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `case_name` "Perez v. Disney" in `d` (5 results, including S.D. Texas case 4:21-cv-00765 terminated 2024-08-01) +- Queried CourtListener MCP server: `search` for `case_name` "Perez v. Disney" in `ca5` in `d` (0 results) +- Read provisioned snapshot `2026-10-17.json` and context `context.json`. +- Read metrics from `metrics/statpack.md`. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..b1183ffea1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cases/scotus/9026000517/events/evt-petition-arrival-disposition/predictions/gemini-baseline/20261018T142134Z/retrieval_log.json @@ -0,0 +1,365 @@ +{ + "actor_id": "gemini-baseline", + "calls": [ + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "90f154340f66d154", + "query": "{\"strategic_intent\": \"Reading instructions for prediction cell to determine required outputs and logic.\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:19.586Z", + "tool": "update_topic" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "7dc783bf72332302", + "query": "{\"file_path\": \".github/prompts/predict.md\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:22.008Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "d5466b59ea22872b", + "query": "{\"file_path\": \"AGENTS.md\"}", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:28:22.009Z", + "tool": "read_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "ee98b874cf66cbd8", + "query": "{\"strategic_intent\": \"Reading event definition and case inputs to understand the stage and context.\"}", + 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It arises from the Fifth Circuit.\\n\\nAlthough this is a \\\"Paid\\\" petition, its nature is typical of IFP petitions (pro se litigant, suing a massive corporation, highly likely to be fact-bound or legally frivolous). Since the petitioner is a private par", + "result_capture": "unobserved", + "result_digest": null, + "result_status": "unobserved", + "retrieved_doc_date": null, + "timestamp": "2026-10-18T14:31:04.955Z", + "tool": "write_file" + }, + { + "call_source": "transcript_item", + "params_digest": "c1fc4550665660fa", + "query": "{\"content\": \"The petition is currently at the arrival moment and has not yet been distributed for conference. 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